As the new year begins, attention in Washington is shifting to the upcoming midterm elections, in which Republicans seek to defend their 2024 gains from a Democratic Party anxious to reclaim the lower chamber in Washington.
The battle for the House will likely produce the most-watched races in the midterms, as the odds are close to even. Republicans’ 53–47 seat majority gives them a better chance of maintaining control of the Senate in 2026.
Adding to the drama are the mid-decade redistricting battles, which have been waged from Texas to California to Ohio. Republicans currently have a slight upper hand there.
However, Democrats also have favorable indicators—primarily a series of recent wins or close calls in races that had favored Republicans.
Democrats also have historical trends on their side: The president’s party has historically lost seats during midterm elections, with few exceptions.
But nothing is set in stone, and the road to securing 218 seats for either party runs through the heartland of the United States.
New York District 4
Located on Long Island, New York’s Fourth Congressional District is represented by freshman Rep. Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.), who was first elected to Congress in 2024.Two Democrats are challenging Gillen in the primary, and three Republicans are looking to flip the district, which sits in Nassau County on the more GOP-friendly eastern portion of the island.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the district by 1 percentage point in 2024.
New Jersey District 7
Rep. Thomas Kean (R-N.J.) represents this district, which is in the northwestern part of New Jersey. He has been in Congress since 2023.Eleven Democrats are vying to take on Kean by becoming the party’s nominee in the general election.
President Donald Trump won the district by 2 percentage points in 2024.
Pennsylvania District 7
Pennsylvania’s Seventh Congressional District, which includes all of Lehigh, Carbon, and Northampton counties, is represented by freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.), who was first elected to Congress in 2024.The district is a top target for Democrats.
Five Democrats are running against him in the general election. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, has endorsed firefighter union leader Bob Brooks.
Trump won the district by 3 percentage points in 2024.
Pennsylvania District 8
Pennsylvania’s Eighth Congressional District, which includes Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, is represented by freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.), who was first elected to Congress in 2024.He won the swing seat by 1.6 percent, making it a top target for Democrats in the more favorable political environment of 2026.
Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti and social media influencer Eric Stone have entered the race as Democrats.
In the northeastern part of the state, the district went for Trump by 9 percentage points in the 2024 election.
Pennsylvania District 10
Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, which encompasses the south-central area of the state, is represented by Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), who has been in Congress for 12 years.Perry previously served as a leader of the conservative House Freedom Caucus.
Former news anchor Janelle Stelson, a Democrat, is running again for the seat after a 2024 loss.
Trump won the district by 5 percentage points in 2024.
Virginia District 2
This district, which includes Virginia Beach, has been represented by Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) since 2023.Former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.), who preceded Kiggans, is running again for the seat.
Trump won the district by 0.2 percentage points.
Ohio District 1
Located in Cincinnati, Ohio’s First Congressional District is represented by Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio), who was first elected to Congress in 2022.Three Republicans and one Democrat are running to challenge him in the general election.
Harris won the district by 7 percentage points in 2024.
Michigan District 7
Michigan’s Seventh Congressional District, which covers southern and parts of eastern Michigan, is represented by Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.), who was first elected to Congress in 2024.The seat was previously held by now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who vacated the seat in 2024 to pursue her bid for the upper chamber.
That year, the district voted for Trump by 1 percentage point.
Seven Democrats have entered the race to challenge Barrett, with the biggest two names being former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink and retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam.
Wisconsin District 3
Encompassing western and southwestern Wisconsin, this district has been represented by Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) since 2023.Three Democrats have entered the primary for a chance to unseat him.
Trump won the district by 8 percentage points.
Iowa District 1
Iowa’s First Congressional District, which borders Illinois and Missouri, is represented by Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa).Four Democrats and two Republicans are looking to unseat her.
Trump won the district by 8 percentage points in 2024, meaning that Republicans are favored to hold onto the seat.
Colorado District 8
Located along Interstate 25 north of Denver, Colorado’s Eighth Congressional District is represented by freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Colo.), who was first elected to Congress in 2024.Seven Democrats are looking to flip the district, with one Republican challenging Evans for the nomination.
Trump won the district by 2 percentage points in 2024.
New Mexico District 2
Covering the southern half of the state, New Mexico’s Second Congressional District is represented by Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.), who was first elected to Congress in 2022.Three Republicans have entered the race in a bid to face him in the general election.
Trump won the district by 2 percentage points in 2024.
Arizona District 1
Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) is retiring after serving in Congress since 2011, leaving his highly competitive seat open.Both parties’ primary fields are full of candidates seeking their party’s nomination in the district, with seven Republicans and 10 Democrats looking to succeed him.
Trump won the district, which encompasses northeast Phoenix, with 51.1 percent of the vote in 2024.
Arizona District 6
Arizona’s Sixth Congressional District, which includes suburban Tucson, is represented by Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), who has been in Congress since 2023.Five Democrats are facing off in the primary to win the nomination and go up against him in the general election.
Trump won the district by 1 percentage point in 2024, leaving the district open to a win by either party.
California District 13
California’s 13th Congressional District is represented by freshman Rep. Adam Gray (D-Calif.), who was first elected to the seat in 2024.Three Republicans are looking to unseat him.
Trump won the district in the San Joaquin Valley by 5 percentage points in 2024.
California District 22
Located in the San Joaquin Valley, California’s 22nd Congressional District is represented by Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), who has been in Congress for a decade.Four Democrats have entered the race hoping to replace him in the GOP-leaning district.
Trump won the district by 6 percentage points in 2024.
California District 48
Represented by Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), who has been in Congress for 22 years, this district includes the Temecula Valley wine country in Southern California’s Riverside County.There are 11 Democrats looking to flip the district.
While Trump won it by double digits, the district was redrawn as part of California’s new congressional map that came about in response to redistricting in Texas.
That means that Issa is going to face a tougher political challenge than he’s had in the past, although his district remains one of the most Republican-friendly redrawn districts.
Washington District 3
Encompassing the southernmost portion of Western Washington state, the Third Congressional District is represented by Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.).Washington state Senate GOP leader John Braun and three other Republicans, as well as one Democrat, are looking to unseat her.
The seat has historically favored Republicans, although Gluesenkamp Perez’s moderate approach has been popular in the region.
Trump won the district by 3 percentage points in 2024.
