What the Numbers Say About Carney’s and Poilievre’s Contrasting Views of Canada’s Economy

News Analysis

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre offer starkly contrasting views on the state of the Canadian economy. For instance, while Carney says Canada is on track for the highest per capita foreign investment in the world and the economy is growing briskly, Poilievre says food inflation is escaping control and investment in productive equipment is the lowest in the G7.

And while Carney says his government is forging new paths to diversify away from the United States and implementing policies to spur domestic growth, Poilievre says the Liberal government should be careful not to alienate the United States as Canada’s largest trading partner, and should remove further barriers and taxes so industry can flourish.

The perspectives put forth by the two are based on different indicators, different time frames, and different measures of economic health.

Here’s a look at the numbers and the way they are presented.

Investment: Worst or Best?

During question period in the House of Commons, Carney recently cited the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as projecting that Canada will post the second-fastest economic growth rate in the G7 in 2025–26. He also said Canada is on track for the highest foreign direct investment per capita in the world.

The actual numbers check out. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook report placed Canada’s estimated real GDP growth in 2025–26 at between 1.2 percent and 1.8 percent—lagging only the United States, at an expected 2 percent to 2.5 percent growth. The other countries will grow between 0.7 percent and 1.6 percent, according to the report.

As for investment, a Statistics Canada report found foreign direct investment inflows reached $96.8 billion in 2025, the highest since 2007.

Poilievre, meanwhile, points to a different measure and says Canada had the “worst investment in the G7.”

His numbers also check out. Canada ranks last among the G7 nations when it comes to investment in machinery and equipment and in intellectual property, according to an RBC report published on April 14. That type of investment is generally seen as reflecting future output and growth—capital investment now can help the economy grow in the future.

The same report says that over the last decade, $1 trillion of investment left Canada in an “unprecedented capital recession.” At the same time, it notes a change in the trend, highlighting that foreign direct investment reached nearly $100 billion in 2025, the highest since 2015.

The Economy: Growing or Shrinking?

Economic growth, the mother of all economic indicators in modern politics, is also debated.

While Carney touts Canada’s growth as the second-fastest in the G7, Poilievre points out that Canada has the “only shrinking economy in the G7.” In the fourth quarter of 2025, Canadian real GDP shrank by 0.6 percent in comparison to the third quarter.

Rolls of paper are prepared for the manufacturing of cardboard box packaging at Cascades in Drummondville, Que., on Friday, March 27, 2026. The Canadian Press/Christinne Muschi

Poilievre also often says accelerating inflation has harmed Canadians struggling to afford food, and points to an election promise by Carney that Canadians would judge him by the price of food at the grocery store.

While inflation has eased since 2022, when it hit a multi-year high of 8.1 percent year-over-year with 12 percent food inflation, prices themselves have not come down. Food price increases have also remained elevated, with the Statistics Canada report for March 2026 showing an annual 4.4 percent rise.

Poilievre reacted to that report by pointing out Canada has the worst food inflation in the G7. Indeed, Canada had the highest year-over-year food inflation in February, at 5.4 percent, followed by Japan at 4 percent, the United Kingdom at 3.3 percent, and the United States at 3.1 percent.

Another number related to food prices is Food Banks Canada’s HungerCount. The organization’s HungerCount 2025 report, which collected data up to March 2025, indicates that the total number of visits to a food bank in Canada rose to the highest ever in March 2025, at nearly 2.2 million. That was a 5.15 percent increase from a year earlier.

Wages: Soaring or Playing Catch-up?

The prime minister, meanwhile, says wages have been beating inflation. A Statistics Canada report found that average hourly wages among employees increased by 4.7 percent in the year through March 2026, almost twice the inflation rate of 2.4 percent in the same period.

That feat, though, can be framed as a one-off period where wages are struggling to match previous inflation.

According to Jack Mintz, president’s fellow at the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary, wages generally lag behind inflation during periods of rapid price increases, as Canada has seen in recent years. He also said public sector wages are higher than those in the private sector, by about 4.8 percent, and tend to rise by larger amounts, so wage increases are not necessarily even.

“We had such a high bout of inflation after 2021 that people got way behind, and they’re still feeling these high prices, and the fact that their incomes haven’t been able to keep up,” he said.

As prices rise at the pump, Poilievre and Carney have squared off over gas taxes. On April 14, Carney announced that his government was suspending the federal fuel excise tax on gasoline and diesel from April 20 to Sept. 7, reducing Canadians’ costs by 10 cents per litre on regular gasoline.

Poilievre has called for Ottawa to go further and remove the GST, excise tax, and Clean Fuel Regulations on gas for the rest of the year, saying it would save Canadians 25 cents per litre at the pump. And a 2023 Parliamentary Budget Office analysis of the Clean Fuel Regulations found that federal taxes alone could add as much as an additional 17 cents per litre to the price of gas by 2030.

Carney, though, has argued that the biggest taxes on fuel are levied by provincial governments.

Kevin Milligan, a professor and director of the Vancouver School of Economics, said provincial taxes can indeed have a greater influence on gas prices than federal taxes.

“In British Columbia, there are transit taxes on gas that vary by city,“ he said. ”For cities with the higher tax rate, the provincial component is higher than federal.”

British Columbia, which often has the highest gas prices in Canada, has a provincial motor fuel tax of around 14.5 cents per litre across most of the province. Metro Vancouver has an additional 18.5 cents per litre tax applied to fund its transportation network TransLink, and an additional 6 to 7 cent gas tax per litre through the B.C. Transportation Financing Authority.

Meanwhile, Alberta has a provincial fuel tax of around 13 cents per litre and no major regional fuel taxes, meaning gas in Edmonton can be much cheaper than in Vancouver.

Housing: Costly or Improving?

On housing, the data is more consistent—housing is expensive. Still, while one points out the scale of the problem, the other highlights improvement.

In an April 16 speech at the Canadian Club, Poilievre declared that Canada has the “most unaffordable housing in the G7.”

Data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows that Canada saw the largest rise in the home-price-to-income ratio out of 23 countries measured—by more than 80 percent over the past two decades. The 2024 data showed that Canada had the worst affordability in the G7, with a ratio of 136.3, compared to the United States at 128.5.

Carney, meanwhile, has touted initiatives to spur housing development, such as the new federal agency of Build Canada Homes, and removal of the GST for first-time buyers on new homes valued under $1 million. Last month, Carney said that housing starts have risen, while rents were at a 33-month low.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) did report that housing starts rose 4.5 percent in February, but CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Kevin Hughes noted that the “six-month trend in housing starts was essentially flat.”

As for rents, they have been falling across Canada after a large uptick in prices in 2022 and 2023. Rentals.ca reported in April that the average asking rent in Canada fell to a 35-month low of $2,008 in March, after an all-time high of $2,202 in May 2024.

One Economy, Two Views

Overall, Carney offers a view of an economy that is strong and growing—and where it’s not strong, it’s getting better. He cites IMF projections, G7 comparisons, year-over-year figures, and, often, the direction of the data, rather than absolute numbers.

Poilievre refers to a different set of measures. Rising food prices, expensive housing, signs of future slowdowns and other problems can be better illustrated, in this case, by long-term investment trends rather than recent inflows, and decade-long shifts in productivity and affordability rather than shorter-term improvements. His focus is on high food prices, weak business investment, and moments of economic contraction as signs of deeper strain.

Both views are grounded in real data from the same economy. The difference lies in what each one chooses to emphasize—and over what time frame.