‘Vote Will Be Very Fragmented’ in Toronto’s ‘Unusual’ Mayoral Election: Political Pundit

Nathan Phillips Square and Toronto City Hall in a file photo. (Emma McIntyre/Getty Images)

Toronto officially opened mayoral candidate nominations on April 3, and the already crowded race is underway, with 31 candidates having submitted their nominations as of April 5.

“It’s a most interesting race because it’s quite open, and that’s very unusual,” Nelson Wiseman, political science professor at the University of Toronto, told The Epoch Times.

“It’s not in my lifetime that I remember” an election that’s so open, said the 77-year-old longtime Toronto resident.

Incumbents usually take a large portion of the votes, but without an incumbent in this race it’s a more level playing field, Wiseman said.

“The vote will be very fragmented. You could have four or five people who are each getting around 20 percent of the vote,” he said. Someone could end up winning with only 25 percent of the vote.

John Tory stepped down in February over revelations he had an affair with a former staffer. He had been re-elected in October 2022 with over 342,000 votes. The runner-up had fewer than 99,000 votes, the next candidate had under 35,000 votes, and the other 28 candidates each had less than 9,000 votes.

A byelection is set for June 26, with advance voting from June 8 to 13. Candidate nominations close May 12. While 31 candidates have submitted their nominations, two others who have not yet registered have said publicly they will, and two more have said they’re considering a run.

Wiseman expects voter turnout to be higher than it was in October because the election is so open. The sole focus will also be on the mayor, since it’s not like a regular election where city councillors are also on the ballot.

Incumbents in the Toronto mayoral race have historically had about a 90 percent chance of winning, according to research published in 2019 by political scientist Jack Lucas at the University of Calgary. Incumbent candidates in Toronto were re-elected 93 percent of the time between 2003 and 2014, when Tory first won.

Generally, in big cities across Ontario, success rates for incumbents have been between 80 and 90 percent, Lucas said. Without an incumbent in the upcoming election, the voting dynamic will be different.

The Candidates

Among the candidates, a number of current and former city councillors are running. Current councillors include Ana Bailão, Brad Bradford, and Josh Matlow. City Councillor Steven Holyday has said he is considering a run.

Former councillors include Rob Davis and Giorgio Mammoliti. Olivia Chow—a former city councillor and NDP MP who was a mayoral candidate in 2014—has said she is considering running.

Former police chief Mark Saunders and columnist Anthony Furey, the latter being vice-president of editorial and content at True North, are running. Liberal MPP Mitzie Hunter has resigned his position to run for mayor. Former Liberal MP Celina Caesar-Chavannes is the most recent to announce her candidacy. Activist Chris ‘Sky’ Saccocia has also joined the race.

Urbanist Gil Peñalosa, who came in second last time, has announced he is running though his name is not yet on the city’s list of candidates. The same is true of policy analyst Chloe Brown, who came in third last time.

Retired police officer Blake Acton, who was fourth, and Sarah Climenhaga, who came fifth, are also running.

The list of candidates also includes engineer Bahira Abdulsalam, Canadian Armed Forces veteran Phillip D’Cruze, lawyer Knia Singh, modular building company president Erwin Sniedzins, IT professional Sandeep Srivastava, and Municipal Socialist Alliance member Kiri Vadivelu. Jack Weenen, who was 19 when he first ran in 2014, is on the list again.

Other candidates are Gord Cohen, Cory Deville, Isabella Gamk, Michael Lamoureux, Kris Langenfeld, Walter Rubino, Rupica Singh Waraich, Meir Straus, Reginald Tull, Syed Jaffery, and Jeffery Tunney.