Oil Prices Inch Higher as US-Venezuela Tensions Grow

OPEC decided to maintain current production levels into 2026 on fears of a global glut.

A 3D-printed oil pump jack is seen in front of the OPEC logo on April 14, 2020. Dado Ruvic/Illustration/Reuters

OPEC decided to maintain current production levels into 2026 on fears of a global glut.

Oil prices rose over $1 a barrel on Monday after drone attacks by Ukraine, rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela, and a decision by global oil producers to keep output levels unchanged in the first three months of 2026.

OPEC+—a coalition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and 10 non-member, oil-exporting countries that coordinate global oil production—decided Sunday to maintain current production levels.

The production decision aligned with delegates who were concerned about a potential supply glut in the market.

Market reaction to the meeting was muted but positive, with oil trading higher. Brent crude rose 1.27 percent to end at $63.17, while West Texas Intermediate increased half a percent to settle at $59.59 Monday.

“Traders had largely anticipated a status quo decision, and the modest uptick reflected relief that the group was not introducing fresh barrels into a market that analysts say is showing increasing signs of oversupply,” the industry site Oilprice.com reported.

However, ongoing political tensions were expected to keep oil prices higher next year, despite the possible glut.

International conflicts in Ukraine and Venezuela played a part in Sunday’s decision, according to energy industry expert Phil Flynn.

“OPEC is closely observing ongoing negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, as well as rising tensions between the United States and Venezuela, both of which present potential risks to global supply,” Flynn said in his notes Monday.

By not committing to a revised production strategy, OPEC+ will be able to respond quickly to any geopolitical developments that could unexpectedly restrict the global supply of oil, Flynn noted.

OPEC+’s decision was made on the heels of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea Saturday. The tankers were empty and sailing to Novorossiysk, a major Russian Black Sea oil terminal, according to Reuters.

Ukraine has been attacking Russian oil refineries for months with long-range aerial drones.

The Black Sea oil tankers were flying under the flags of Gambia and Benin and were part of Russia’s “shadow fleet.” The ships were part of a group of vessels that helped Russia move oil while avoiding Western sanctions. Each ship can transport oil worth tens of millions of euros to help Russia’s economy and war efforts.

Venezuelan military members patrol around the Simon Bolivar International Bridge at the Colombia–Venezuela border as seen from Villa del Rosario, Colombia, on Oct. 16, 2025. Schneyder Mendoza/AFP via Getty Images

In another part of the world, U.S. President Donald Trump has increased pressure on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Venezuela produces about 1 million barrels of oil a day, according to CEIC.

In recent weeks, the U.S. military has deployed one of its largest forces to the Caribbean, including the USS Gerald R. Ford—the world’s most advanced aircraft carrier.

In a press meeting Saturday, Trump said Maduro’s regime was a significant national security threat, accusing it of involvement in drug trafficking and mass migration as well as its ties to Iran, China, and Russia. Maduro has denied these allegations.

Trump also said Saturday that the airspace above and around Venezuela should be considered closed.