New Zealand in Limbo as 500,000 ‘Special Votes’ Still Being Counted

Conservative Christopher Luxon is negotiating in private with ACT and New Zealand First on forming government.

National Party leader Christopher Luxon, (2L) celebrates with his wife, Amanda Luxon, (2R) and children Olivia Luxon (L) and William Luxon (R) at Shed 10 in Auckland, New Zealand, after winning the general election on Oct. 14, 2023. Fiona Goodall/Getty Images

New Zealand will have to wait for more than half a million special votes to be counted before the final makeup of the Parliament is known.

These special votes aren’t due to be fully counted by the New Zealand Electoral Commission until Nov. 3. The ballots will include postal votes from people who live or have been travelling overseas.

Christopher Luxon, 53, leader of the National Party, received the majority of votes at the election on Oct. 14.

However, with 567,000 special votes still to be counted, it’s possible that this make-up of seats could change when the final result is delivered.

At this stage, it isn’t known if the prime minister-elect will need to work with New Zealand First, or can govern alone with its preferred coalition partner, ACT New Zealand.

New Zealand First, led by Winston Peters, has worked with both sides of politics in the past but this time promised to not work with Labour prior to the election. Chris Hipkins, the Labour leader, conceded defeat on the night of Oct. 14 after his party lost 31 seats based on preliminary results.

Looking ahead, Mr. Luxon has so far only confirmed that Nicola Willis will be the finance minister in a new government.

“The only two people we’ve locked in is Prime Minister Chris Luxon and Finance Minister Nicola Willis,” he told media. 

Meanwhile, Mr. Luxon is keeping negotiation details close to his chest and said he wouldn’t provide a “blow-by-blow daily update” to the media. However, he did confirm that his team has spoken with New Zealand First, led by Mr. Peters.

“I won’t be talking about it, because in fairness, I genuinely want to build goodwill. I’ve done a lot of negotiations in my past life, and I do want to have a strong and stable government on the other side of it,” Mr. Luxon said in an interview with Newshub.

“I do want to use the next three weeks to now get going and build the relationships and start to talk about the arrangements with the respective parties.”

Mr. Peters, 78, also stayed silent and smiled when asked multiple questions upon his arrival in the capital Wellington ahead of negotiation talks on Oct. 18. His only statement to the media was “get out of my way.”

Net zero, the New Zealand relationship with China, Māori co-governance, the economy, and environmental regulation are among the issues that may come into play if a three-way coalition is formed.

State of Play

In order to control the Parliament, 61 seats are needed out of 120 seats overall.

The Oct. 14 preliminary results delivered 50 seats for the National Party and 11 seats for ACT. This would be enough to govern with a one-seat majority. The New Zealand First Party gained 8 seats.

Labour received just 34 preliminary seats, while the Greens received 14, and Te Pati Maori gained four seats.

In the 2020 election, when Jacinda Ardern was still prime minister, Labour won 65 seats, but that has been reduced to 34 based on the preliminary results.

Commenting on his future role, Mr. Hipkins said: “I’ve still got a bit of fight left in me. I am absolutely committed to supporting Labour into opposition.”

Mr. Hipkins plans to stay in the top job. He conceded defeat on the night of Oct. 14, saying “Labour Party is not in a position to form government” less than a year after he took over the prime ministership.

Christopher Luxon, leader of the National Party, arrives at his election party after winning the general election to become New Zealand’s next prime minister in Auckland, New Zealand, on Oct. 14, 2023. David Rowland/Reuters

After 100 percent of the preliminary vote was counted on Oct. 14, results showed that the National Party had gained 38.99 percent of the vote.

Labour received 26.85 percent, while the Greens came in third with 10.78 percent.

ACT New Zealand received 9 percent of the vote, the New Zealand First Party gained 6.46 percent, and Te Pati Maori received 2.6 percent.

The remaining special votes account for about 20.2 percent of the total vote.

How Do the Parties Work?

The National Party is a centre-right political party in New Zealand founded in 1836. Labour is a centre-left major party founded in 1916.

ACT New Zealand is a classical libertarian party, while NZ First is a nationalist party formed in 1993 when Mr. Peters left the National Party.

The Greens is a left-wing political party, while the Te Pati Maori, also on the left, advocates for more rights for Maori people.

Major parties in New Zealand commonly have to work with minor parties to form government. The National Party is often a coalition partner with the ACT, while Labour teams up with the Green and Maori parties.

In the 2020 election, however, Labour was able to govern in its own right after winning 65 seats with Ms. Ardern as prime minister.

In 2016, Labour had to work with minor parties after winning just 46 seats compared with 56 seats for the National Party.