New Zealand’s Net Zero Target Set for a ‘Great Reset?’

The 3-party coalition could see New Zealand change direction on major issues like net zero and China.

Wind turbines from the Roth Rock wind farm at the Backbone Mountain, next to the Mettiki Coal processing plant, in Oakland, Md., on Aug. 23, 2022. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

As the shape of the future New Zealand government continues to form, a swathe of policies will likely come under the microscope or face the chop altogether.

Party leaders are still waiting for the postal vote count from the Oct. 14 national election to conclude, with questions remaining over whether the centre-right National Party can govern with its preferred coalition partner, the libertarian ACT party, or whether it will need to also link up with the nationalist New Zealand First.

The influence of the ACT will likely pull the National Party further right (or conservative) on several issues, but a three-way tie-up could pressure the next government to markedly change its position on issues such as New Zealand-China ties, Māori co-governance, environmental regulation impacting farmers, and net zero.

In June, the National Party pledged to adopt the previous government’s net zero by 2050 target with leader Christopher Luxon saying he believed “very strongly” in the cause.

National leader Christopher Luxon arrives at Shed 10 after winning the general election in Auckland, New Zealand on Oct. 14, 2023. Fiona Goodall/Getty Images

The ACT’s Position on Net Zero

While the ACT has supported New Zealand’s continuing role in international emissions trading schemes, it has been more critical about legislated domestic pledges to cut emissions.

“We can’t get ahead of other countries—in terms of emissions reductions—if it puts an excessive [carbon] price on our industries and households,” Simon Court, ACT’s climate change spokesperson, told Newshub in August.

“ACT does not support the Zero Carbon Act, it gives the climate minister the opportunity to interfere in every aspect of a person’s life and what a person does.”

The Zero Carbon Act sets the country’s net zero target, and includes a pledge to reduce methane emission levels by 24-47 percent below 2017 levels by 2050.

Earlier in the year, the ACT also pledged to repeal the Clean Car Standard and Clean Car Discount—a position shared by the National Party.

The Discount started in 2021 as a government-backed rebate scheme for EV and PHEV buyers, which was gradually expanded to include hybrids and petrol vehicles with low emissions ratings.

However, in an attempt to make the scheme self-funding, the government rolled out a tax on high-emissions vehicles, notably utility vehicles, with charges as high as NZ$5,175 per levy.

“Why should tradies be taxed to subsidise Teslas?” said Mr. Court at the time. “The ‘ute tax’ is expected to increase the price of used cars by 20 to 25 percent, making life tougher for everyday Kiwis grappling with the cost-of-living crisis.”

What Does Peters Think?

NZ First leader Winston Peters has been accused of spreading “misinformation” about climate change by local media outlets.

In a September address in Remuera, Mr. Peters, who was the deputy prime minister in 2016 to the Ardern government, was critical of the consensus around climate change science, while questioning the impact humans have on the planet.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters speaks in Orewa in Auckland on Sept. 25, 2020. Fiona Goodall/Getty Images

“Carbon dioxide is 0.04 percent of the Earth’s atmosphere and of that 0.04 percent, human effect is 3 percent,” he said in comments obtained by RNZ.

Mr. Peters also said New Zealand only contributed 0.17 percent of the emissions to the world with China, India, and the United States far ahead.

“We’ve only been keeping stats for the last 100 years, but you’ve got all these people out there saying these are unique circumstances and they haven’t got the scientific evidence to prove that.”

NZ First has pledged to set up a Ministry of Energy that will focus on lowering electricity prices and force energy generators to sell their retail arms (to reduce vertical integration) while allowing small distribution companies to buy generation and transmission assets.

The State of Play

Over half a million “special votes” cast from overseas are still being counted—many New Zealanders reside in Australia—with final results expected by Nov. 3.

Special votes have traditionally leaned further left on the spectrum, meaning it could potentially chip away at the lead of the National and ACT parties.

The Oct. 14 vote saw the National and ACT parties predicted to win 50 and 11 seats respectively, just enough to obtain the 61-seat majority needed to govern.

However, under the country’s mixed-member proportional system, the Parliament could also end up adding seats after a strong turnout for the Māori Party (Te Pāti Māori).

This combined with a flow of overseas left-leaning votes for Labour and the Greens could tip the majority away from National and ACT, opening the door for NZ First to join the coalition.

The NZ First is close to winning back eight seats at this election after losing nine in the 2020 election.