Majority of Canadians Say Alberta Separation Threat Should Be Taken Seriously: Survey

The flags of Alberta and Canada are shown in Kananaskis, Alta., in a file photo. Shutterstock

A majority of Canadians say they consider the threat of Alberta’s secession from Canada to be serious, according to a recent survey.

Fifty-two percent of Canadians said the threat of Alberta separation should be taken “very seriously,” while 27 percent say it shouldn’t, the May 7 Leger survey completed for the Association for Canadian Studies found. Another 21 percent said they were not sure.

Meanwhile, in Alberta, 63 percent said threats of separation needed to be taken very seriously, while 27 percent did not think so. Ten percent said they weren’t certain.

The results come after Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced several measures earlier this week in response to the federal election results, including allowing a separation referendum if the petition requirements were met.

She said her government opposes separation and wouldn’t propose a separation referendum. If a citizen-led petition successfully collects the necessary signatures, however, her administration would follow the democratic process and allow that question to appear on a 2026 referendum ballot.

The premier announced changes a few days earlier to democratic processes that would lower the bar for holding referendums by reducing the number of citizen-led petition signatures needed and extending the time for collection. She said the timing of the changes was unrelated to the election outcome and had been in the works for some time.

The premier has repeatedly said she and her UCP Party doesn’t support secession and prefers to strengthen the province’s sovereignty within a united Canada. Her decision to allow for a separation referendum, if the requirements are met, is intended to allow Albertans to express their views, she said, adding that no Albertan should be “demonized” for their opinions.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has emphasized the importance of national unity in response to Smith’s comments.

“Canada is stronger when we work together,” Carney told reporters in French on May 6 in Washington. “I am Albertan. I proudly believe in Canada. So one can ask the question, but for me the answer is clear.”

Smith asked Carney to “immediately” begin work to reset Ottawa’s relationship with her province following his victory on April 28 that secured the Liberals a fourth term in office.

She said most Albertans were “deeply frustrated” by the Liberals’ return to power, arguing that many of the party’s policies, especially those she says hinder the province’s resource development, have harmed Alberta’s economy over the past decade.

The issue of national unity surfaced earlier this year when Smith called on Canada’s next prime minister to address her province’s demands to avoid an “unprecedented national unity crisis.”

Among those demands was the removal of some of Ottawa’s policies, including the Impact Assessment Act, the 2019 ban on oil tankers off the B.C. coast, and the proposed cap on oil and gas emissions. Smith said at the time that if those demands were not met, she would consider consulting Albertans on the province’s next steps.

In the May 7 survey, approximately half of respondents in other provinces said they believed the threat of separation by Alberta needed to be taken very seriously, including 51 percent in B.C.; 54 percent in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Ontario; 50 percent in Atlantic Canada; and 46 percent in Quebec.

The proportion of those who did not think it was very serious ranged between 25 percent and 29 percent of respondents across the provinces.

National Unity and Quebec Separation

The question of Quebec’s separation was also posed to survey participants. Forty-two percent said the Quebec separation threat should be taken “very seriously,” while 37 percent said they did not believe so and 21 percent were unsure.

When broken down by province, Quebec had the highest percentage of those who thought the province’s separation threats needed to be taken very seriously at 47 percent, compared to 45 percent of respondents in Ontario; 38 percent in B.C., Saskatchewan, and Manitoba; 32 percent in the Atlantic provinces; and 31 percent in Alberta.

Thirty-four percent of Canadians said they agreed the federal election results would contribute to more unity between Canadians, while 37 percent disagreed, and 29 percent said they didn’t know.

More than half of those from Alberta said the Liberals’ win will not help Canadian unity, while 39 percent in Manitoba and Saskatchewan said Carney’s win will not be good for unity. That number was 38 percent in Quebec; 35 percent in B.C.; 34 percent in Atlantic Canada; and 33 percent in Ontario.

Those who voted Conservative or for the Bloc Québécois were more likely to see the Liberal win as a problem for national unity at 62.7 percent and 55.6 percent respectively. In comparison, only 29.9 percent of NDP voters and 14.7 percent of Liberals said that Carney’s win will not be good for unity.

Of those surveyed, 35 percent said they believed Alberta had legitimate reasons to want to leave the confederation, while 33 percent said Quebec had legitimate reasons to leave.

Those who said they voted Conservative in the recent federal election were most likely to take the threat of Alberta separation seriously at 63.5 percent, followed by 47.7 percent of Liberal Party supporters and 47.1 percent of NDP voters. About 31 percent of those who voted for the Bloc Québécois said the Alberta separation threat was serious.

The Leger survey was conducted between May 1 and 3, with 1,626 participants.

The most recent data on Albertans’ support for leaving Canada suggests that 36 percent are in favour, according to a May 8 Angus Reid Institute survey. Of those, 19 percent said they would “definitely” vote to leave, and 17 percent said they are leaning toward voting to leave.

Meanwhile, 52 percent of Albertans said they would “definitely” vote to stay, and 8 percent said they would lean toward it. Only 4 percent said they were not sure.

The survey was conducted between May 6 and 8 and polled a randomized sample of 790 adults in Alberta, according to Angus Reid.