Liberal MP Erskine-Smith ‘Exploring’ Ontario Liberal Leadership, Eyes Provincial Seat

Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith takes questions from reporters as he arrives for a meeting of the Liberal caucus, on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on June 5, 2024. The Canadian Press/Justin Tang

Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith has announced plans to transition from federal to provincial politics as the Ontario Liberal Party’s candidate for an upcoming Toronto-area byelection as he explores a run for the party’s leadership.

Erskine-Smith said in a Feb. 3 blog post that he wants to run as the Liberal candidate in the provincial riding of Scarborough Southwest that was left vacant by NDP MPP and deputy party leader Doly Begum.

Begum stepped down this week in a bid to join Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government in the federal riding of the same name, which was vacated by former cabinet minister Bill Blair. Blair is leaving federal politics after being appointed by Carney as Canada’s new high commissioner to the United Kingdom.

Erskine-Smith said he is changing his focus to provincial matters because he believes “the biggest difference I can make is rebuilding our provincial Liberal party to deliver for Ontarians.”

“We deserve smart, fair, and honest leadership here in Ontario,” he said in his blog post that he titled: “When it comes to Ontario, I’m all in.”

The post links to a campaign website that announces the longtime MP and former transport minister is “exploring another run for the Ontario Liberal leadership.”

Erskine-Smith did not say if he will resign as an MP as he seeks the provincial nomination but said he has spoken with interim Liberal leader John Fraser about his aspirations.

In the meantime, he said he will continue to support Carney “as an active member of our federal caucus.”

Byelections have yet to be called either federally or provincially for Scarborough Southwest.

Elections Canada said in a Feb. 3 statement that the byelection to replace Blair must be called between Feb. 13 and Aug. 1, and be held 36 to 50 days following its announcement.

Erskine-Smith’s proposed bid for the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party comes a month after Bonnie Crombie officially resigned as its leader.

Crombie officially stepped down on Jan. 14 after announcing last September her intention to resign from office. The announcement came after Crombie received just 57 percent support in staying on as leader during the Ontario Liberal party’s annual general meeting.

The party did not secure enough support during the 2025 provincial election to establish itself as the official Opposition and Crombie failed to win a seat in the legislature. The result led to some party members calling for her to step down, especially if she received less than 66 percent support during the AGM vote.

Erskine-Smith was one of the voices advocating for a “renewal” at the helm of the provincial party and hinted that he would like to run again after placing second in the 2023 leadership contest.

He suggested in a message to his supporters last summer that he might be considering another attempt at the leadership, adding that he would finalize his “ultimate decision” once the party members voted on Crombie’s leadership.

Federal Issues

Erskine-Smith has long had a keen interest in Ontario politics and he has voiced discontent with some of Carney’s decisions since the 2025 spring election.

The Toronto-area MP was one of the 10 ministers Carney dropped from cabinet last May and Erskine-Smith said at the time it was “impossible not to feel disrespected” by the prime minister’s choice.

Erskine-Smith announced in January 2024 that he would not seek re-election in the 2025 vote after nearly a decade of representing Beaches-East York, but changed his mind in December of that year after being appointed as the minister of housing by then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Erskine-Smith publicly voiced his disappointment over not retaining his housing portfolio as well as being excluded from cabinet altogether.

Erskine-Smith held the housing portfolio for less than six months after replacing Sean Fraser, who resigned from cabinet after citing a desire to spend more time with his family.

Fraser reversed-course after Carney was named Liberal leader and Fraser was re-elected for a fourth term in his Nova Scotia riding. He was named minister of justice and attorney general in Carney’s new cabinet.

Erskine-Smith’s replacement for the housing portfolio was Gregor Robertson, who served as the mayor of Vancouver for a decade.

Erskine-Smith also spoke out more recently after the Liberal government released its budget last fall. He posted a video last November labelled, “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly” and spent much of the clip listing what he called the “bad” and the “ugly” aspects of the budget.

If Erskine-Smith resigns as MP it will push the Liberal seat count down to 168 in the House of Commons. The Liberal seat count has fluctuated in recent months. Two Conservative MPs crossed the floor to join the Liberals last year boosting the government to 171 seats, just one shy of a majority government. Resignations of Blair and Chrystia Freeland this year dropped the seat count back to 169.

Freeland resigned as MP for her Toronto-area University-Rosedale riding after accepting a role as an adviser to the Ukrainian government. The Liberals have since announced that family physician Danielle Martin will be the party’s candidate in the upcoming University-Rosdale byelection.

Carney has yet to call a byelection for this riding or the one left vacant by Blair.

Elections Canada said in a Jan. 9 press release that the byelection for the University-Rosedale riding must be announced between Jan. 20 and July 8.