Paraguay Conservative’s Election Victory Hinders China’s Bid for Regional Dominance

Paraguayan presidential candidate Santiago Peña from the ruling Colorado Party speaks at the party headquarters as he and his running mate, Pedro Alliana, lead Paraguay's presidential race, according to early results, in Asuncion, Paraguay, on April 30, 2023. Agustin Marcarian/Reuters

Conservative presidential candidate Santiago Peña won a major victory in Paraguay on April 30, strengthening the hold of the Colorado Party as a new wave of leftist leadership has emerged in the region over the past two years.

Beyond Paraguay’s borders, the geopolitical implications of the election win are significant. This is especially true for the U.S.–China struggle over prevailing influence in Latin America.

Taiwan’s last remaining diplomatic ally on the continent also hung in the balance on the election’s outcome. Leftist opposition, along with Paraguay’s agricultural and beef lobbies, have pushed for a switch of allegiance to China in recent months.

Latin America and Taiwan share a commonality in the U.S.–China power struggle.

Both locations have become a geopolitical proving ground, with Latin America serving as a testament to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) goal of dominating commerce and trade in the West.

A Chinese warship fires at a target during a military drill near Fuzhou, Fujian Province, near the Taiwan-controlled Matsu islands that are close to the Chinese coast on April 8, 2023. Thomas Peter/Reuters

On the other side is Taiwan, the target of military muscle flexing by China. The CCP has conducted multiple “training exercises” near the island nation’s shores in recent weeks.

Since February, China’s show of force near Taiwan has prompted the most significant U.S. military buildup in the neighboring Philippines since the end of the Cold War.

Borrowed Time

A flip in Paraguay’s diplomatic relations in favor of Beijing would have been a symbolic victory for CCP leader Xi Jinping, regional experts say.

They predicted the loss of its only remaining diplomatic tie in South America might erode Taiwan’s leadership and demoralize its citizens before the 2024 presidential election.

Peña’s victory in Paraguay has allayed that concern for the moment, but some analysts say Taiwan may be on borrowed time.