Since late last year, the conservative-leaning One Nation has surged in the polls to the point it now challenges—and in some polls, transcends—the Labor government in popularity.
Yet over the three decades since its founding, One Nation’s journey has oscillated between near political oblivion, to teasing a potential shake-up of the two-party duopoly, and only in the last 10 months appears to be realising its potential.
In March, One Nation secured about 20 percent of the primary vote and several seats at the South Australia state election.
In May, the party managed to win 25 percent of the primary vote in the Nepean state by-election. And in the federal electorate of Farrer, the party managed to win a seat held by the Liberal-National Coalition since 1949.
A Challenging History
One Nation was established in 1997 in the Queensland region of Ipswich, securing almost 9 percent of the national vote at the 1998 federal election.Support fluctuated over the next two decades before picking up steam again upon leader Pauline Hanson’s official return in 2016.
For most of the 2000s and 2010s, the left-wing Greens were considered the emerging “third force” in politics as it routinely captured about 10 percent of the primary vote. The two major parties steadily bled support over this period too.
By the 2025 election, several Greens MPs lost their seats despite the party’s overall vote remaining strong with One Nation pulling 6.4 percent of the vote, its highest in 20 years.
The next chart shows how much One Nation’s primary vote has changed from June 2025 to June 2026 with One Nation’s vote up from 6.0 percent to 29.5 percent over a 12 month period, according to Roy Morgan.
What’s Driving the One Nation Surge?
The next chart shows where One Nation is absorbing most of its support, looking at whether voters were willing to change their vote from the last election.About 43 percent of Coalition voters from last year say they will switch to One Nation if an election was held right now.
Another 23 percent of those who voted for independents say they will switch, and 51 percent of “donkey” voters saying they'll back the One Nation horse.
One Nation’s rise also comes amid changing public sentiment.
While cost of living and inflation routinely dominates voters’ minds, an ANUpoll in March found border control or migration top of mind.
About 70 percent of 3,662 Australians surveyed said border control was a key responsibility of government, followed by healthcare, cost-of-living, aged care, and environmental protection.
When looking at the demographics, One Nation supporters largely come from the over 35s, suburban-regional, and non-university educated individuals.
From the chart below, compiled from DemosAU data across February, April, and June, some key trends stand out.
One Nation’s appeal to the Languages Other Than English (LOTE) sector is still low compared to Labor, while the May budget seems to have swung support towards the conservative party in several areas.
For example, support among the 35-54 age demographic—young families predominantly—increased by 7 percentage points between April and June, while tertiary-educated Australians also switched to One Nation, up 6 points.
Mortgage holders also increased their support, up 8 percentage points, as well as high income earners (over $125,000 per year) went up 4 points.
How do One Nation Voters See the Government?
A joint survey (pdf) from ANU and Griffith University after the 2025 federal election found One Nation supporters to be especially sceptical of government and institutions.Almost three-quarters of supporters were distrustful of the government, believing politicians look after themselves—higher than other party’s supporters.
