Housing Market Moves to the Margins as Suburbs Beyond 20km From CBD Dominate Growth

Voters in outer suburban housing hotspots swung to Labor, driven by affordability pressures and promises of long-term support.

A person rides a bike past houses on a street in Albany, Western Australia, on May 20, 2024. Susan Mortimer/The Epoch Times

Outer suburban markets are driving Australia’s housing price growth, as affordability pressures push buyers further from city centres.

New data from property analytics firm Cotality shows that lower-priced areas on the outskirts of capital cities have significantly outperformed their inner-city counterparts over the past year.

The standout growth has been concentrated in suburbs like Blacktown, Liverpool, and Fairfield in Sydney’s west and southwest, and Forde and Petrie in outer Brisbane.

These areas have become hubs for first-home buyers priced out of central markets, contributing to rising home values, and in some cases, political shifts.

In Sydney, 81 percent of suburbs located more than 20 kilometres from the city centre recorded annual increases, compared to just 26 percent of inner suburbs.

Similar trends have been observed in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Melbourne, where outer suburbs offered entry points into homeownership amid high interest rates and rising living costs.

“Households are making pragmatic decisions in response to tighter borrowing capacity and higher mortgage costs,” said Cotality’s Research Director Tim Lawless.

Voter Sentiment Matches Housing Shift

The same outer suburbs recording strong housing growth also played a key role in Labor’s electoral gains this year.

Many of these areas are home to mortgage-burdened families who stood to benefit from Labor’s housing platform, including Help to Buy and Build to Rent schemes.

In Queensland, Labor won the seats of Petrie and Forde, which are traditionally held by the Liberal National Party.

In New South Wales, the party captured Banks and Hughes in Sydney’s southwest, with Hughes turning red for the first time since 1996.

In Werriwa, one of the country’s most mortgage-stressed electorates, Labor’s Anne Stanley not only retained her seat but appeared to increase her margin slightly.

The shift was not limited to Queensland and NSW.

In South Australia, Labor won the traditionally safe Liberal seat of Sturt for the first time in over 50 years, while also consolidating its hold on Boothby.

In Victoria, Labor flipped the battleground seat of Deakin, ousting Shadow Housing Minister Michael Sukkar.

Expert Warns Against Surface-Level Solutions

Despite the gains, experts caution against reading too much into housing policy promises.

John Humpherys, chief economist at the Australian Tax Office, warned that structural issues driving unaffordability remain unaddressed.

“Australian houses are overpriced due to high building costs, inelastic supply, high immigration, and the constant drift of people from the regions into the major cities,” he told The Epoch Times.

“The policies of the major parties will help some young people to edge into the housing market, but they do nothing to address the underlying problems of the housing market.”

Still, for many voters in growth corridors like Blacktown, Petrie, and Hughes, the promise of modest help was enough to sway the vote—just as those areas were seeing property values climb.