China and Russia were identified as the two main military threats in the Arctic, but despite the latter’s devastating invasion of Ukraine dominating news headlines, two military experts perceive the threat from Beijing as being more dangerous and enduring for Canada.
“Many of the Chinese activities in and around the Arctic have dual-use purposes and could be used to advance China’s strategic and military interests. [China] views itself erroneously as a ‘near-Arctic state,’” said Kevin Hamilton, director general of international security policy at Global Affairs Canada.
He and other defence professionals and Arctic specialists were testifying before the Senate Standing Committee on National Security and Defence on March 21 at a hearing to “examine and report on issues relating to security and defence in the Arctic.”
Major-General Michael C. Wright, commander of the Canadian Forces Intelligence Command and chief of defence intelligence, said “there are many areas of convergence [between China and Russia], but I would say there are also areas of divergence and it is an unequal partnership—Russia very much the junior partner, and that will be increasingly so over the coming years.”
Beijing’s calculus amid the Ukraine crisis has been under close scrutiny—not just with regard to its evolving relationship with Moscow and threats against Taiwan—but also for its designs on the Arctic and accompanying menace to Canada.
Regarding Russia, the defence panellists agreed that there is a distinction between that country invading Ukraine and the threat it poses to Canada in the Arctic.
Hamilton said “the situation in Russia and Ukraine is not analogous from a geographic perspective to the security challenges we face in the Arctic. But it is a factor when it speaks to the psychology of the Russian regime.”
He added that the Ukraine invasion is a function of geography and the expansionist Putin regime.
But defence analysts have long been saying that Canada cannot rely on geographic isolation for protection.
At the Ottawa Conference on Security and Defence from March 9–11, Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Washington, D.C.-based Wilson Center, reminded participants of the threat of missiles that can fly at least five times faster than the speed of sound.
“In an age of hypersonics, and other kinds of attacks, we can’t think of North America as protected by the oceans anymore at all,” he said.
Russia has fired hypersonic missiles at Ukraine. They are harder to detect as they can fly at lower altitudes and outmanoeuvre missile detection systems, such as the antiquated North Warning System in the Arctic—a joint Canada-U.S. network of radar built in the 1980s. China also possesses such weapons.
Upcoming Arctic Investment
While it was acknowledged at the Senate committee hearing that Canada has not kept pace with the growing threat level from China and Russia, Jonathan Quinn, director general of continental policy at the Department of National Defence, said that “decisions have been taken” on additional investments in the Arctic and that details will soon be forthcoming.
“I would just flag that it’s certainly recognized that the investments that have been made today in the announcements made to date are not sufficient to meet the evolving threat environment. There is more that is planned,” Quinn said.
