CCP Trade Sanctions Caused Almost No Ripples Across Australian Economy

CCP Trade Sanctions Caused Almost No Ripples Across Australian Economy
A photo taken shows a paddock of wheat being harvested on a farm near Inverleigh, Australia, on Jan. 12, 2021. William West/AFP via Getty Images
Rebecca Zhu
Updated:
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Beijing’s politically motivated trade war against Australia barely affected the overall economy, highlighting that trade with China may not be as economically essential as it appears to the country.

The Productivity Commission revealed in its Trade Review 2021-22 report that Chinese trade impediments on Australian goods decreased Australia’s real GDP (GDP adjusted for inflation), real income (gross national product), and terms of trade by less than one percent for each metric.

Most notably, real GDP decreased by a mere 0.009 percent. Meanwhile, the greatest impact was on the output from the primary production sector, which fell by 1.4 percent.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) imposed $20 billion worth of trade impediments on a number of goods in 2020, including coal, wine, barley, beef, lobster, timber, and cotton, in retaliation of the former Morrison governments’ tough-on-CCP policies, including demanding independent investigations into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.

While exports for wine and lobster were particularly affected as the industries struggled to diversify as successfully as other affected industries, the trade impediments did not impose any significant economy-wide costs on Australia.

“While these measures do not appear to have imposed substantial costs on the Australian economy as a whole, some businesses paid a heavy price,” the report said.

Lobster exporters were exceptionally concentrated on the Chinese market. Since working to enter new markets, including Hong Kong and Vietnam, export value has begun to rebound.

Barley and coal exporters were the most successful at finding other markets, the report said, while noting that despite trade barriers, beef and wheat exports were not greatly affected.

Exports to China of commodities affected by trade war, based on data from the ABS 2023 International Merchanise: Trade Customised Report. (Productivity Commission)
Exports to China of commodities affected by trade war, based on data from the ABS 2023 International Merchanise: Trade Customised Report. Productivity Commission
Destination of lobster exports before and after trade war. (Productivity Commission)
Destination of lobster exports before and after trade war. Productivity Commission