Canadians Largely Unmoved by Feds’ New Budget, Tory MP Defecting to Liberals: New Poll

The federal budget document in Ottawa on Nov. 4, 2025. The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first budget promising “generational” changes and a Tory MP crossing the floor to join the Liberals has done little to change voters’ intentions, according to a recent poll.

Cost of living continues to be the leading issue for Canadians followed by economic anxiety, an Abacus Data survey of more than 1,900 adults found. Faltering support for Carney remains largely the same following Nov. 4’s twin events of Conservative MP Chris d'Entremont leaving to join the Liberal Party and the release of the federal budget.

“The federal race remains tight. Approval of the Carney-led government continues to erode. And Canadians remain laser-focused on pocketbook issues, particularly the cost of living, which has risen again as the top issue,” notes the report summary from Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.

The poll, conducted Nov. 5 and 6 and released Nov. 10, asked Canadians about their political views and primary concerns following the release of the budget and d'Entremont’s defection. Abacus Data noted that participants in the survey came from various online panels and that the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percent, 19 times out of 20.

The poll found that only 33 percent of Canadians believe the country is headed in the right direction while 49 percent say it’s headed in the wrong direction. Only 14 percent say the world is on the right track and just 13 percent are positive about the United States.

The poll further found that concern about the cost of living has increased by four points since the previous poll conducted on Oct. 29, reaching 66 percent. This was accompanied by a 2 percent increase in worries about the economy, now at 39 percent, and a 3 percent decrease in concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration, which stands at 34 percent.

The poll indicated that the Carney government’s approval rating has continued to decline, now standing at 44 percent, a decrease from 52 percent in June. This represents the lowest approval ratings for the Carney government since his victory in April’s federal election.

Carney’s personal approval rating remains at 46 percent positive and 34 percent negative, showing no change from the last poll. In contrast, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre experienced a drop of seven points, now at 37 percent approval and 44 percent disapproval, marking his lowest rating in more than a year.

“This shift follows a week that included the unexpected defection of a Conservative MP to the Liberals. While the full impact of that event is still unfolding, it appears to have bruised Poilievre’s personal brand,” Coletto noted. “This latest data suggests the budget has not arrested the longer trend of softening support for the Liberals. Instead, it appears to have passed without significantly changing perceptions of the government’s performance.”

The poll found the Conservatives have 41 percent voter support, the Liberals 40 percent, and the NDP 8 percent.

Among major polling firms, Abacus Data is the only one which consistently shows the Conservative Party ahead in the race. Other polling companies put the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives. For example, Léger puts the Liberals at 43 percent and Conservatives at 38 percent, and Nanos Research has the Liberals at 39 percent and the Conservatives at 37 percent.