The stakes for Western alienation were raised this week when Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said she would allow a question on separation to go to a referendum if it meets the requirements. While Smith made it clear she doesn’t support separation herself, she said Albertans holding such views should not be called “traitors.”
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe also hasn’t ruled out allowing a vote on separation if residents triggered legislation for a plebiscite, though he said he still hopes Saskatchewan can continue to be part of Canada.
While the two provinces have in consecutive elections voted against the federal Liberals, the Liberals still secured a fourth term in the 2025 election largely due to votes from Central Canada. Smith pointed out that Albertans are not questioning the election but rather feeling “deeply frustrated” that the same ministers who brought in policies she says lock in Alberta’s resources, and thereby its prosperity, are back in power, and that policies the province is opposed to remain in force.
Prime Minister Mark Carney is faced with a tough balancing act to keep the Confederation united, with disquiet growing in the West, Quebec going into its own provincial election next year where the separatists are also hoping to gain ground, a voter base in Central Canada, and a cabinet with diverging worldviews compared to some in the West.
Unrest in the West
Separation sentiment has increased in Alberta in recent years, with a poll ahead of this year’s federal election showing the percentage of Albertans wanting to secede had reached 25 percent, increasing to 30 percent if the Liberals formed the next government, according to results from Angus Reid polling. In Saskatchewan, support for independence was projected to climb to 33 percent under a Liberal victory, up from an initial 20 percent.
On May 3, the weekend following the April 28 federal election, hundreds gathered outside the Alberta legislature to rally for the province’s separation from Canada, with some displaying U.S. flags to reflect support for Alberta becoming part of the United States, echoing U.S. President Donald Trump’s notion that Canada should become the 51st state.
University of Calgary political science professor Barry Cooper, who was part of a three-member group who wrote the Free Alberta Strategy that proposed the Alberta Sovereignty Act before it became law by Smith, says Alberta has been treated unfairly, citing the federal equalization program as an example. He noted that although Albertans have raised concerns for years, “nothing has been done.”
“To avoid Alberta independence, Canada will have to acknowledge the harm it has done [to the province],” Cooper told The Epoch Times.
Political consultant and public policy analyst Bill Bewick, who serves as executive director of grassroots group Fairness Alberta, says the province’s willingness to remain in Canada depends above all on changes to federal policies, such as those related to net-zero emissions, arguing that one of their major consequences has been driving away investment.
“The policies for the last 10 years have been aggressively opposed to our constitutional rights regarding resource development, but more importantly, they’re just contrary to common sense in a lot of ways.” Bewick told The Epoch Times.
“These all will chase generational investments out of Alberta and leave us far poorer, with a bleak future compared to what should be happening.”
People gather in support of Alberta separating from Canada during a rally at the provincial legislature in Edmonton on May 3, 2025. The Canadian Press/Jason Franson
Still, Smith said in a livestream address on May 5 that many in the province, including herself, want to stay in a united Canada. She said she still has “hope” that Alberta can stay “strong and sovereign” within the federation, pointing to growing support for energy projects and noting that most Canadians voted for leaders who promised to develop the country’s energy potential.
During the election campaign, Liberal Leader Carney pledged to turn Canada into an “energy superpower” by boosting both the “clean and conventional” energy sectors while reducing emissions, though his insistence on maintaining legislation such as the Impact Assessment Act has angered Smith’s government. For his part, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was a strong supporter of the energy sector during the campaign, promising to fast-track energy projects such as pipelines and do away with the Impact Assessment Act and the industrial carbon tax.
After his first call with Smith following his election as prime minister, Carney said he remains committed to “creating more opportunities in the energy sector for hardworking Albertans.”
Smith made it clear that her government will not sit idly by if federal policies restricting the province’s resource sector aren’t rescinded.
“It will take a lot of work to undo the damage caused by these last 10 years of Liberal/NDP rule, but that clear change in public opinion gives me hope—I think it should give all Albertans hope,” she said in her address.
Carney’s Challenge
Meeting Alberta’s demands may be challenging for Ottawa, says John von Heyking, political science professor at the University of Lethbridge, given the domestic factors that contributed to Carney’s victory, including a shift of many NDP voters to the Liberals and Carney’s strong performance in Quebec—the Liberals’ best in many decades.
“That means that the federal, Liberal government now owes its existence to the political left and to Quebec,” von Heyking told The Epoch Times.
“He’s got a wide but brittle coalition that he needs to try to keep together, and the centre of gravity will be on keeping Quebec happy, and right now Quebec is not happy.”
In her May 5 address, Smith said the province would appoint a Special Negotiating Team to work with Ottawa on a number of the province’s demands, such as “guaranteed” transportation corridors and port access for Alberta exports, and the repeal of federal policies the province says interfere with the development of provincial resources.
She said she wants the federal government to remove the Impact Assessment Act, which she calls the “no new pipelines law”; the oil tanker ban in the West Coast; the net-zero electricity regulations; the emissions cap on the oil and gas sector; the net-zero vehicle mandate; and restrictions on plastic and industrial carbon emissions.
Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on April 3, 2025. The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld
Von Heyking says that some of those demands, particularly those related to energy infrastructure projects, are likely to face resistance in Quebec, and that while most Canadians seemed to support energy projects aimed at increasing self-reliance during peak trade tensions with the United States, much of that support may wane.
Amid the U.S. tariffs and renewed resolve for more self-sufficiency in Canada, Quebec Premier François Legault said there remains “no social acceptability” for pipelines to cross Quebec in order to enable a cross-country pipeline project shipping Alberta oil and gas to Eastern Canada and export markets via the Atlantic.
“If you could get some sort of consensus on the need for the Canadian economy—the Canadian state infrastructure—to work in a more resilient way, and if Mr. Carney can argue, especially to his [voter] base, that you need this stuff precisely to defend yourself against the threats coming from Washington, then that might be the best strategy,” Von Heyking said.
Another challenge in negotiations could be the high cost of energy projects, he said, adding that if Carney hopes to meet Smith’s demands, he would likely also need to invest in projects favoured by Quebec and the political left, such as renewable energy projects, “because they’re going to be opposed to a lot of that, and especially to the stuff that pleases Alberta.”
He also noted that Quebec is due to hold a provincial election next year, and with support for the separatist movement remaining strong, that’s another factor that may cause problems for Carney.
Bewick says Carney will likely try to accommodate Alberta, noting that unlocking Canada’s potential was a key part of his election platform, and that with a possible separation referendum on the horizon next year, the stakes may be higher.
“I think that gives him all the political justifications he needs to do the right things,” Bewick said.
Smith ‘Walking a Tightrope’
The day after the federal election, Smith proposed changes to Alberta’s democratic processes, including the requirements for citizen-initiated petitions.
With the changes, the signature collection period is extended from 90 to 120 days, and the threshold is set at 10 percent of eligible voters who participated in the most recent general election, thus lowering the bar for policy, legislative, and constitutional citizen initiatives.
Smith said the timing of the announcement was unrelated to the election outcome, adding that the changes had been in development for some time. She said the lack of citizen-initiated referendums prompted her government to consider new ways to encourage direct democracy.
“You want a bar that’s high but you don’t want a bar that’s impossible to achieve,” she said at an April 29 press conference.
Alberta NDP and Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi called Smith “a separatist,” saying the proposed legislation is “entirely designed” to give Albertans a referendum on separation. He argued that the provincial government is paying “a lot of attention to a very small minority of people who do not represent Albertan values,” referring to those who say they would support a referendum on separation.
During a media availability on May 6, Smith reiterated that while she doesn’t support Alberta separatism, the main goal of the initiative is to have Albertans express their views.
“Citizens have a right to express their opinion on things that they’re concerned about, and I think it’s my job to make sure that debate is respectful,” she said.
An oil sands upgrader plant near Fort McMurray, Alta., in a file photo. The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh
Von Heyking says Smith is waging a “multi-front war,” with internal party tensions adding to the situation with Ottawa. He said the allegations of political interference in medical procurements made by the former president of the province’s health authority, Athana Mentzelopoulos, have raised questions about Smith’s ability “to control her own party.”
The allegations, which resulted in the resignation of a provincial cabinet minister, have prompted various investigations, including a review by the province’s auditor general, an internal review by Alberta Health Services, and an RCMP probe. The province has also launched a third-party investigation led by former Manitoba judge Raymond E. Wyant.
The premier has denied any wrongdoing, saying she wasn’t involved in procurement decisions, and has rejected calls to remove her health minister. The allegations haven’t been tested in court.
Von Heyking also noted Smith’s closer ties with Quebec following the premier’s interest in working with the province to “enhance” provincial autonomy. He said Smith could encounter some criticism for wanting to collaborate with Quebec, as some of Quebec’s laws, such as those on secularism, might be seen as “restrictions on liberties” and may not align with Albertans’ values.
On the other hand, a better relationship with Quebec could be related to that province’s influential position in the current federal government, he added.
“It’s a complicated situation for the premier—she’s walking a tightrope,” Von Keyking said.
“I think her strategies need to be understood in light of the kind of coalition that the federal Liberals have now as a result of the election.”
Carolina Avendano
Author
Carolina Avendano has been a reporter with the Canadian edition of The Epoch Times since 2024.
