Never before has a government orchestrated such a media blitz ahead of its budget announcement. And as the Liberals unveil their 2024 budget items one by one—each with its own press conference—they have their sights set on voter polls and the coming election, says political science professor Nelson Wiseman.
Although the election is due by October next year, it could come sooner.
“The Liberals know they’re down in the polls, and they’ve decided, ‘Let’s have a full-court press this year and have all our ministers out there making announcements all over the country every day and flooding the media,’” Mr. Wiseman, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, told The Epoch Times.
At the same time that pushback against the April 1 carbon tax hike was making headlines, the Liberals kicked off their pre-budget announcements, starting with populist items like help for renters and child care.
As a general principle, governments often release budgets heavy on social spending ahead of an election—and then raise taxes to pay for it later. This phenomenon is called the “political budget cycle” and has long been studied by political scientists.
‘Today’s Deficits Are Tomorrow’s Taxes’
Jake Fuss, director of fiscal studies at the Fraser Institute, said he expects there will be tax increases to pay for the newly announced spending.
“The new services are not free, and must ultimately be paid for through higher taxes either today or in the future,” Mr. Fuss told The Epoch Times. “Today’s deficits are tomorrow’s taxes.”
The new programs are primarily funded by borrowing money, he said. Debt interest is already so high, he noted, that Ottawa will spend about as much on interest alone this year as it spends on the Canada Health Transfer.
Mr. Fuss said the complete budget, which will be announced on April 16, will likely stick to the government’s promise to keep the deficit at or below $40 billion, which is still high, he said. “It’s ultimately a soft target and this deficit would be larger than any of the deficits the Trudeau government ran before COVID.”
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has so far dodged questions as to whether next week’s budget could include more taxes.
Announcing the budget piecemeal the way the Liberals are doing this year gives the media time to dwell on each item, Mr. Wiseman said. Headlines announcing billions in spending on various programs sound attractive, but they don’t always give an accurate picture, he said.
“It’s always back-ended,” Mr. Wiseman said, with much of the spending allocated over multi-year plans and the government spending only a portion in the coming year and the larger amounts planned for years down the road.
Historically, Ottawa stays mum about the budget until its official release date, Mr. Wiseman said, since announcements made before the budget release could affect financial markets.
In recent times, however, more and more budget items have trickled out ahead of time—albeit without line-by-line details of how the money will be spent.
Is It Working?
It’s hard to tell yet if the Liberals have made much gain following their budget announcements. A Nanos poll released on April 9 was based on surveys ending on April 5, five days into the Liberal budget announcements, and combined surveys from the three previous weeks.Nanos announced a week earlier that March survey results saw the Liberal Party making gains, narrowing its gap behind the Conservative Party. Although the Tories are still leading with a wide margin, the Liberals were 12 percentage points behind them in March in the Nanos poll, compared to nearly 20 percentage points a month earlier. The April 9 release showed the same 12-point gap.
The Liberals and Conservatives will focus on seats that were close calls for each party in the last election, Mr. Wiseman said.
“Everything is done to try to boost their support, and they do have certain voters in mind,” Mr. Wiseman said.
