With two games gone in the NBA’s Western Conference finals the veteran Spurs have a two-games-to-none lead over the younger, upstart Thunder. Does this mean the best-of-seven series is over? Of course not. In fact, the Thunder should actually pull out this series. Here are five reasons why:
1. The Spurs have only held serve.
In the playoffs every win or loss is magnified.
San Antonio has won its two home games, just like it was supposed to. In fact, had it lost one, most prognosticators would be predicting its impending-demise at this very moment. The Spurs earned their home-court advantage with an NBA best 28–5-mark at home during the regular season, so it shouldn’t be too much of a shock that they took care of business.
Besides, San Antonio knows as well as anyone that a 2–0 lead is no guarantee. In 2004 the then-defending Champion Spurs took a 2–0 lead over the much-feared Lakers in the Western Conference semifinals (it may have well been the finals, being that they were considered the best two teams on the planet). But the Lakers, who lost to the Spurs the year before, rebounded to win Games 3 and 4 at home before edging the Spurs in a Game 5 classic thriller on their way to winning the series four games to two.
Oh and by the way, that 2004 Spurs team was composed of the same Tim Duncan/Manu Ginobli/Tony Parker nucleus, and coached by current San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich, that leads their 2012 version. Clearly, a 2'0 lead is no guarantee.
2. Both wins were by single-digits.
Granted, the Spurs were in high gear for most of Tuesday night’s win before hanging on in the fourth quarter for a 120–111 win, but Sunday night’s win was pulled from the Thunder’s grasp in the final 12 minutes. Oklahoma City took the lead just before halftime and seemed to be sitting pretty throughout the third quarter, before the Spurs erupted for a 39-point final period that won the game 101–98.
Tuesday’s contest saw San Antonio play some of its best basketball of the season and still the Thunder battled back to within six with five-and-a-half-minutes to play. It has now seen the Spurs at their best and with the next two games to be played in Oklahoma City, the Spurs should see the Thunder’s best.
3. Twenty straight wins means you’re due for a loss.
The red-hot Spurs won their final 10 games of the regular season and have now won the first 10 of the playoffs. What does it mean? Let’s take a look back at some of the longest winning streaks in NBA history.
The longest winning streak belongs to the 1971–72 Lakers who won 33 straight games en route to the NBA title that same year. But the second longest streak was by the Houston Rockets who won 22 straight in 2008 only to lose in the first round of the playoffs. After that the current Spurs streak is tied with the 1971 Milwaukee Bucks that also won 20 in a row before hoisting the NBA Championship trophy later that season.
As far as playoffs go, the last team to combine such a streak with the regular season and postseason was the Lakers in 2001 that won their final eight games of the regular season and then the first 11 of the postseason. After losing to the Sixers in overtime of Game 1 of the NBA finals, Los Angeles roared back with four wins in a row for the title.
Previous to that the 1988–89 Lakers won the first 11 games of the playoffs before being swept by the Pistons in the finals. We'll give them an asterisk here though as Laker guards Magic Johnson and Byron Scott missed a majority of that series with injuries.
The Spurs streak puts...
The Spurs streak puts them in select company, but the bottom line is only two of those 20 wins count in this series.
4. Championship experience only goes so far.
The Spurs have won four titles (‘99, ’03, ‘05, and ’07) with Tim Duncan and Gregg Popovich while Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker were around for the last three rides. How much is that championship experience worth? Ask the Lakers.
After winning the Finals in 2009 and 2010, L.A. was promptly swept out of the second round in each of the last two postseasons in series that weren’t very close at all.
This season’s Lakers squad was bounced by these same youthful Thunder in just five games even though Oklahoma City’s star trio of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden all have just 34 playoff games under their belts, all in the last three years. Meanwhile, L.A.’s power trio of Kobe Bryant (220 career playoff games) Andrew Bynum, (74) and Pau Gasol (101) have far more postseason experience, yet they were still unceremoniously bounced out by the Thunder.
San Antonio’s nucleus of Tim Duncan (186), Manu Ginobli (132), and Tony Parker (148) have even more experience than L.A.’s bunch. We'll see what that experience brings them in the next week.
The flip side to experience is hunger—and usually youth. Durant (23 years old), Westbrook (23), and Harden (22) are considerably younger than Duncan (36), Ginobli (34), and Parker (30) and they haven’t tasted that NBA Championship trophy yet.
5. They have the best player in the series.
One of the many brilliant strategies of legendary coach/GM Red Auerbach was to make sure he got the best player in any trade he made. If he were running the Thunder today there’re few players he could upgrade the three-time All-NBA First-team selection Kevin Durant for.
Already a three-time scoring champion, Durant may not have all the all-around skills that LeBron James has but there might not be anyone else out there that you can say that about.
History has shown that most champions have one of the top players in the league. You'd have to go all the way back to the 2003–04 season when the Larry Brown-coach Pistons shocked the Lakers in the finals to win it all, despite a lack of stars on the squad.
That year’s teams boasted a well-rounded starting five of Richard Hamilton, Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, and Chauncey Billups—all good players though none are Hall-of-Famers.
This year’s Spurs team still possesses a future Hall-of-Famer in Tim Duncan, but he’s a shell of his former self, averaging 15.4 points and 9.0 rebounds a game this past season—well below his career averages of 20.3 and 11.3.
The Spurs may have a little more depth but you can only play five players at a time and the Thunder, at any time, can have the best player on the court.
Oklahoma City should win this series in seven games.
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