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Why Are Economic Forecasts So Often Wrong?

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Why Are Economic Forecasts So Often Wrong?
U.S. dollar banknotes are seen through a printed stock graph in this illustration taken on Feb. 7, 2018. Dado Ruvic/Reuters
Daniel Lacalle
|Updated:
Commentary

At the end of every year, we receive numerous estimates of global GDP growth and inflation for the following year. Historically, in almost all cases, expectations of inflation and growth are too optimistic in December for the following year.

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Daniel Lacalle
Daniel Lacalle
Author
Daniel Lacalle, Ph.D., is chief economist at hedge fund Tressis and author of the bestselling books “Freedom or Equality” (2020), “Escape from the Central Bank Trap” (2017), “The Energy World Is Flat”​ (2015), and “Life in the Financial Markets.”
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