U.S. business activity accelerated in November as new orders logged their strongest increase of the year, signaling resilient domestic demand even as manufacturers continue to wrestle with weakening exports, swelling inventories, and tariff-related cost pressures.
S&P Global’s flash composite PMI, released on Nov. 21, rose to 54.8 from 54.6, marking a four-month high and pointing to roughly 2.5 percent annualized GDP growth early in the fourth quarter.
“The flash PMI data point to a relatively buoyant U.S. economy in November,“ said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. ”The upturn also looks encouragingly broad-based for now, with output rising across both manufacturing and the vast services economy.”
Services led the expansion, while manufacturing remained in growth despite signs of strain deeper in the supply chain. New orders drove the acceleration, posting their biggest rise of 2025 and their strongest performance since spring 2022. The services sector recorded a sharp pickup in new business, with manufacturers reporting more modest gains amid another month of shrinking export demand.
“Improved service sector growth was accompanied by a further robust increase in manufacturing production,” the report states. “Although slowing marginally since November, the sustained expansion over the past six months continues to represent on average the best spell for goods production growth since early 2022.”
Still, the numbers point to emerging risks. Factory respondents reported a record buildup of finished-goods inventories for the second month in a row—the largest stock accumulation in the 18-and-a-half-year history of the survey.
“This accumulation of unsold inventory hints at slower factory production expansion in the coming months unless demand revives, which could in turn feed through to lower growth in many service industries,” Williamson said.
Jobs Rise, but Hiring Stays Cautious
Employment continued to increase in November but at a slower clip, consistent with other indicators suggesting a cooling—but still resilient—labor market.“The pace of job creation meanwhile remained only modest, due principally to cost concerns,” the S&P Global report states.
Manufacturers reported the fastest hiring in three months, despite service-sector job growth easing. Several companies said they were holding back on new recruitment amid cost-related budget cuts and efforts to increase efficiency.
The hiring expansion reported by S&P Global comes on the heels of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report for September, released only this week due to delays caused by the lengthy federal government shutdown.
The BLS report showed 119,000 jobs added—more than double expectations—and an uptick in the jobless rate to 4.4 percent as more people reentered the labor force. Health care, food services, and social assistance led gains, while manufacturing shed 6,000 positions amid weaker goods demand and excess inventories.
Despite the cross-currents, business confidence strengthened sharply, reaching its highest point since January, according to the latest S&P Global PMI report. Companies cited expectations of future Fed rate cuts and the end of the government shutdown as factors.
“A marked uplift in business confidence about prospects in the year ahead adds to the good news,” Williamson said, adding that the jump in sentiment is further underpinned by reduced concerns about the political environment and a broader sense of improved economic optimism.
