Top Forecaster Still Favors Democrats to Win House, but GOP Retains a Path to Hold Majority

Cook credits the potential GOP advantage to the redrawn district maps that favored the party nationally in 2025 and earlier this year.

President Donald Trump delivers his first State of the Union address during his second presidential term in the House Chamber on Capitol Hill in Washington on Feb. 24, 2026.Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The Cook Political Report said on July 16 that Democrats are favored to win control of the House this November, but that Republicans still have a way to keep it.

The report is an independent, non-partisan analysis of elections and campaigns for the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, governors, and president, as well as American political trends.

“Democrats remain in a strong position to take control of the House,” Cook Political Report’s analyst Erin Covey wrote, adding that it is not a foregone conclusion. Even a good night for Democrats would likely leave them with a slim majority, she wrote.

A party needs 218 seats to control the House. After its July 16 ratings changes, Cook rates Republicans as favored in 212 seats and Democrats in 205, with 18 toss-ups—races either party could win.

That gap is the Republican path. Republicans keep the House by winning just six of the 18 toss-ups. Democrats need 13, or upsets in seats where Cook gives Republicans the edge.

Cook nonetheless put the most likely outcomes between a narrow Republican hold, at 221 seats, and a Democratic majority of 228. Most of the results in that span are Democratic majorities—the basis for its call. The top end also shows why even a Democratic win would likely be slim: Reaching 228 would amount to what Covey called “a good night” for the current minority party, with Democrats sweeping all 18 toss-ups and taking half the seats that lean Republican.

Cook’s recent read of the political climate for each party explains the tilt. In a June analysis, the publication’s Amy Walter wrote that the overall electoral environment is unlikely to improve for Republicans before the fall, pointing to voter pessimism about the economy, affordability, and the cost of living. Even the end of the Iran war, she wrote, would not meaningfully improve the climate for the president’s party.

Redistricting Fight Keeps GOP Majority in Play

Every 10 years, states redraw their congressional districts, but several states redrew theirs again this cycle. Covey noted that Republicans redrew several states to their benefit, with more of the new lines favoring their candidates, compared to Democratic action taken in other states.

Covey said the redistricting arms race of 2025 and 2026 allows Republicans to hold a three-seat majority on paper and have built an eight-or-nine-seat cushion for November.

Cook also said the map of competitive seats is smaller than it was in 2018, when Democrats picked up 40 seats. If Democrats matched their 2018 performance nationally this year, Cook estimated they would gain only about 10 to 15 seats.

Financially, Republicans hold the advantage at the committee and super PAC level, according to the analysis. The National Republican Congressional Committee had $82 million on hand as of June 1 to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s $73 million.

Covey wrote that a Supreme Court ruling allowing party committees to fully coordinate spending with their campaigns gives Republicans a financial edge, though how large is not yet clear. Another open question, she wrote, is whether the Republican National Committee moves some of its $125 million to House races or whether expensive Senate contests absorb it.

Individual Democratic candidates are a different story. Democratic House candidates had raised about $848.4 million this cycle to Republicans’ $632.1 million, according to FEC filings covering activity through May 31, and Democrats held seven of the 10 top House fundraising spots. Those figures represent the financial picture on June 30, when the Supreme Court ruling came down.

Six Races Moved, No Change in Who Wins

Cook shifted six races in Democrats’ direction on July 16. In none of the six did the favorite change.

Two are Republican-held. Kentucky’s 6th District, open because Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) is running for Senate, went from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Texas’s 15th District, held by Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Cook called that the one closely watched race moving into a more competitive category.

The other four are seats Democrats already hold, now rated safer. Rep. Derek Tran (D-Calif.) and Rep. Josh Riley (D-N.Y.) moved from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-N.H.) and Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Ore.) moved from Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat.

President Donald Trump carried the Texas district by 18 points. Cook said recent polling shows the race tied between De La Cruz and Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Tejano musician well known in the Rio Grande Valley.

The Kentucky district is safer ground for Republicans. Trump carried it by 15 points in 2024, and Barr won reelection by 27, according to Cook.

Democrats say the map is wider than the ratings suggest.

“House Democrats have an expansive battlefield and the message, money, momentum, and strong candidates to win everywhere—including districts that Trump won by double-digits,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Communications Director Courtney Rice said in a statement on July 16. “We’re taking back the majority in November.”

Republicans also see their chances as favorable.

“Republicans are building the war chest needed to defend our majority, expand the map, and win in November,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella said.