The six prospective additions to the U.S. Department of the Interior’s Critical Minerals List are vital “commodities” that domestic manufacturers—including in defense industries—are import-reliant on today, but won’t have access to in the future without dramatic boosts now in mining and refining investment, analysts and industry groups warn.
Uranium and metallurgical coal could also be added at Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s discretion, although uranium is a metal, and coal a sedimentary rock.
In 2023, according to the survey, China was the leading producer of 29 of the 50 critical minerals on the 2022 list.
“Reliance on critical minerals from other countries and China’s dominance in producing and refining them raises concerns about critical mineral supply chain disruptions in the United States,” it said. “The dominance varies by mineral, but China’s control over certain critical minerals is so pronounced that the U.S. relies on China for a significant portion, or even all, of its supply for several of these materials.”
“It signals where the pressure points are likely to be in the years ahead,” he said.
Copper is in accelerating demand in a rapidly electrifying planet, he told The Epoch Times.
“Every power line, charging station, and data center depends on it,“ Butts said. ”The difficulty is not only in mining. Much of the world’s refining is concentrated in China, which means even ore mined in friendly countries often still passes through the same chokepoints.”
The ‘Copper Gap’
According to the New York-based Copper Development Association, the United States “faces a ‘copper gap’ where its domestic mining and processing can’t meet demand, despite having sufficient resources, due to slow permitting and limited refining infrastructure.”Resolution Copper is one of 10 “first wave” projects approved for accelerated review in April by the Federal Permitting Council in accordance with President Donald Trump’s March executive order.
“New domestic projects are underway, but the U.S. won’t achieve self-sufficiency by 2035 due to long development timelines for mines and a lack of primary smelters and refineries,” the Copper Development Association said, noting the nation “faces a refining bottleneck, as the number of copper refineries has declined from nine in 2000 to just five in 2023, reducing refined production by 40 percent.”
Avadh Nagaralawala, an Arizona-based mining consultant, said, “The ultimate risk is if the U.S. moves too slowly, we end up simply trading one dependency for another; trading Middle East oil for Chinese copper and lithium.”
Private investment is key, as is regulatory speed, he told The Epoch Times.
“Streamlined permitting initiatives” have momentum “although the pace is still slow compared to mining nations like Canada, Australia, or China,” he said.
“Silver plays a double role,” Butts said. “Investors treat it as a precious metal, yet it’s also essential in solar panels, electronics, and medical gear. Silver is locked into growth sectors … so demand remains resilient even if ‘thrifting’ continues.”
He projects that “the bigger effect could be midstream,” in refining, smelting, and processing.
“Expect more pressure to refine copper and silver inside the U.S. or allied countries rather than shipping concentrates abroad,” he said.
The ‘Original’ Critical Mineral
Potash could be the most fundamental of the commodities and most critical, according to Michigan Potash & Salt Company founder and CEO Theodore Pagano.“Arguably,” he told The Epoch Times, “potash is the original strategic and critical mineral,” noting the United States has more than enough of the potassium-based mineral but, nevertheless, imports 90 percent to 95 percent of the 5.3 million tons of fertilizer—mostly from Canada—that the nation’s farmers use annually.
The project is among the 10 being “fast-tracked” under Trump’s March executive order. In January, the Department of Energy announced a conditional loan guarantee of up to $1.26 billion to build the mine and processing plant to produce 800,000 tons of potash and about 1 million tons of salt per year.
According to the company, the project will employ 1,400 and create 200 full-time jobs.
“We got a three-year build ahead of us,” Pagano said. “We do things a little different. We’re not sending people underground. We’re more of a manufacturing facility than, say, what you would call a traditional mining facility. We’re really brine-handlers.”
That’s the speed of light in relative regulatory time.
“The long-dated time associated with bringing on new facilities in the U.S. is one of those hurdles. I think it’s on average, 28 years,” he said.
That makes the designation of potash as a critical mineral, and the federal financing commitments, a big deal in lowering fertilizer costs for the nation’s farmers and, ultimately, keeping food costs down, Pagano said.
“We all feel” the cost of imported potash, he said.
“We all feel it at the grocery store. Food inflation is a real thing,” he said.
“Certainly, the tide is turned just at the right time when folks were awakened out of complacency. We’ve got a chance to do something unique in Michigan at a time where it’s front-and-center.”
