Rubio Confident NATO Will Pledge Big Increase to Defense Spending Ahead of Summit

Non-U.S. NATO members would collectively account for more than half of the alliance’s total spending under the new goal.

NATO military forces during static display after “Exercise Steadfast Dart 2025” at the Smardan Training Area, in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025. Daniel Mihailescu/AFP via Getty Images

All NATO member states will commit to a new long-term goal of spending 5 percent of their GDP on national defense ahead of the military alliance’s upcoming summit, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

In an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News on Thursday, Rubio said it would be a “historic” shift of balance for the alliance if the new goal is met.

“I can tell you that we are headed for a summit in six weeks in which virtually every member of NATO will be at or above 2 percent,” Rubio said.

“But more importantly, many of them will be over 4 percent, and all will have agreed on the goal of reaching 5 percent over the next decade.

“It'll be the first time in NATO history where they have reached targets and goals that will allow NATO partners to be more than 50 percent of the Alliance.”

NATO allies agreed in 2014, in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, to halt the spending cuts they had made in the post-Cold War years and move toward spending 2 percent of their GDP on defense by 2024.

Ahead of the NATO Summit 2025, scheduled for June 24–25 in The Hague, Rubio credited President Donald Trump with kickstarting the change during his first term.

At the 2018 NATO summit in Brussels, Trump criticized European allies for relying heavily on the United States for military protection while contributing relatively little to defense spending—and simultaneously placing barriers on U.S. goods in European markets.

He called on member states to not just meet the minimum 2 percent obligation but to share more of the burden by raising their defense budgets to 4 percent of GDP.

“I think all of that tracks back to 2018 when President Trump challenged the members of the Alliance to step up,” Rubio told Hannity.

Rubio’s comments come on the heels of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Turkey, where U.S. Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that the current 2 percent target is “not nearly enough,” urging member states to invest more in defense and industrial production in the face of growing threats posed by Moscow and Beijing.

“We have to make sure that we spend enough money all over NATO to keep ourselves safe,” Rutte said.

Several member states have already taken steps toward the proposed 5 percent goal. Poland, for instance, has promised to reach that level within the next few years. After a conversation with Rubio in Turkey, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul also announced on Thursday that Germany would push for military spending of 5 percent of GDP.

According to NATO’s 2024 defense expenditure estimates, compiled in June 2024, Poland was projected to lead all member states in military spending relative to GDP for the second year running, allocating 4.1 percent of its economic output to defense. Estonia and the United States followed, each at 3.4 percent.

About one-third of the alliance is still expected to fall short of the 2 percent benchmark, including Portugal (1.55), Italy (1.49), Canada (1.37), Belgium (1.3), and Spain (1.28).