Less than a year until the Nov. 5, 2024, presidential election, multiple polls are telling a similar story.
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden, many Americans are not interested in a rematch between the two candidates, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s support has transformed the election into a three-way race.
Mr. Kennedy is currently traveling the country to collect signatures to get on the ballot in all 50 states and Washington D.C.
His poll numbers must reach at least 15 percent to be included in the general election debates with the Republican and Democrat nominee.
At a voter rally in Kansas City, Missouri, on Dec. 13, Mr. Kennedy told reporters, “I intend to participate in the debates and I will spoil the race for President Biden and President Trump. I intend to win.”
About 6 in 10 respondents reported they were not satisfied with the two-party system and prefer a third choice.
Polls Show Distaste for 2020 Rematch
Monmouth University published a poll on Dec. 10 indicating that 1 in 5 voters would support Mr. Kennedy and 49 percent are “not at all” enthusiastic about a possible President Biden-President Trump rematch.“For most voters, 2020 is an election they’d rather not have to relive,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “The question is whether this discontent creates an opening for someone else.”
According to the Monmouth University study, 49 percent said they will “definitely not” vote for President Biden and 48 percent said the same for President Trump.
In a press release about the poll, Monmouth University stated that Mr. Kennedy’s potential impact on the race is uncertain because he pulls support equally from President Trump and President Biden.
Regarding Mr. Kennedy, 6 percent said they “definitely” will vote for him while 15 percent reported they “probably” will.
“Kennedy’s name may be well-known, but his policy positions are not. However, it’s not clear that knowing those positions will move his support levels either up or down. At the current time, he appears to be more of a placeholder for expressing some generalized dissatisfaction with the likely trajectory of the 2024 nomination process,” Mr. Murray said.
According to the study, 14 percent are undecided.
A poll conducted between Nov. 30 and Dec. 4 by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research indicated that many Americans are not interested in a rematch between President Trump and President Biden.
Among those surveyed, 56 percent said they would be “very” or “somewhat” dissatisfied with President Biden as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee in 2024, while 58 percent reported they would be very or somewhat dissatisfied with President Trump as the Republican Party’s selection.
Support From ‘Younger People’
Mr. Kennedy pointed to a New York Times/Siena survey of registered voters released in early November that showed him leading President Biden and President Trump among voters younger than the age of 45 in six states as a reason for optimism.Once people hear his platform firsthand instead of what’s reported by the mainstream media, Mr. Kennedy said in Kansas City, they'll sign the nominating petitions and cast their votes for him.
“I’m doing well among younger people and independents because they tend to get their information from what we used to call ‘unconventional sources.’ They get it from listening to podcasts, and they get it from social media and reading a lot of alternative media,” he said.
“If the only source of information that you have is MSNBC, CNN, and The New York Times, I would have a very low opinion of myself, too, because you’re not going to hear anything good about me. You’re going to hear a lot of defamation, a lot of things that just aren’t true.
“What we find is that when we can convince people who think I’m an anti-vaxxer and conspiracy theorist to watch podcasts like Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson, and those long-form interviews, they have very high and very quick conversion rates.”
