Judge Arthur Engoron’s widely anticipated adverse ruling against 2024 candidate and former President Donald J. Trump, fining him $355 million and temporarily barring him from running businesses in New York, is unlikely to change the minds of many voters from either major party in the coming election, but it may have an effect on the independent and undecided voters in swing states who could ultimately decide the contest.
That’s the view of Kevin Wagner, a professor at Florida Atlantic University who specializes in polling, elections, and the intersection of judicial, legislative, and political trends and developments.
Judge Engoron clearly meant to send a sharp rebuke to President Trump, his organization, and his business associates, and to convey the judge’s view that none of the arguments of expert witnesses who testified on behalf of President Trump during the lengthy trial are of any legal merit.
In his blistering 92-page opinion, Judge Engoron dismissed in five short paragraphs the testimony of New York University professor Eli Bartov, who argued under oath that the Trump Organization’s statements of financial condition were consistent with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) and contained no material misrepresentations.
“By doggedly attempting to justify every misstatement, Professor Bartov lost all credibility in the eyes of the Court,” Judge Engoron wrote, and went on to cite as an example Mr. Bartov’s testimony concerning the triplex at Trump Tower in Manhattan.
“Bartov insisted that the misrepresentation of the triplex, resulting in a $200 million overvaluation, was not intentional or material (leading the Court to wonder in what universe is $200 million immaterial),” Judge Engoron wrote.
The Electoral Effect
Though the judge’s opinion castigates Mr. Trump and numerous witnesses who testified on the defense side, and the ruling stands to tear a significant chunk out of Mr. Trump’s net worth, it is unlikely to induce members of his base to defect to the Democrats, or to influence any Democrats who find the treatment of Mr. Trump unfair to abandon their own party, said Mr. Wagner.“If we go by the evidence so far—how the public has reacted to Mr. Trump’s court cases—I think the pattern generally has been that among voters who support the former president, these things have not hurt him. If anything, they have increased the intensity of support among a significant portion of the Republican Party,” Mr. Wagner told The Epoch Times.
“Correlation isn’t causation, but there certainly is an interesting timing as to how the former president’s support among Republicans went considerably higher after many of these cases were brought,” he added.
That may be good news for Mr. Trump, but a similar dynamic is at work on the other side of the aisle.
“Of course, people who oppose Mr. Trump are likely to be energized by this as well,” Mr. Wagner continued.
A trickier question is the effect on swing state voters who have not been supporting one or the other party consistently for years.
“As a pollster, it’s something I am likely to ask in future polls. But it’s a little harder to make predictions about that particular group who are not necessarily [aligned with] one side or the other. There is some evidence that the court cases have hurt him with a segment of the independent vote,” he said.
Hence, the consequences of the ruling may be most visible among patches of independent voters in those swing states whose electoral outcomes—in a polity so polarized, and with such narrow margins in national elections—may decide the race for Donald Trump or President Joe Biden in November.
“In many states, such as California or Alabama, where the difference between the political parties is so significant that where the independent voters go doesn’t change the outcome, it doesn’t matter quite as much. But in states where it’s going to come down to a few points, like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, then, yes, this certainly could affect the outcome,” said Mr. Wagner.
“There does tend to be a consistent pattern. Where the independent vote does break one way, it shows up to different degrees in different parts of the country,” he added.
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