Obamacare premiums rose sharply in 2026 and are likely to do so in 2027, based on early rate change filings by some insurers.
Of the 77 insurers whose proposed rates are now publicly available, the median proposed premium increase is 14 percent, according to a July 8 report by health information group Peterson-KFF Health Tracker.
The primary reason given for the proposed rate hikes is that the insured population in Obamacare is likely to be smaller and sicker than this year’s.
Enrollment in the program dropped by about 3 million this year, and the report estimated that healthier people were more likely to withdraw from the program.
Some experts say that the fall-off in participation was driven by the fall-off of fraudulent enrollments or of participants who had been enrolled unknowingly.
This would be the fifth consecutive year of premium increases in the program. Last year’s median proposed change was 18 percent. The final median change was 20 percent, according to the report.
The benchmark silver premium, which is used to set subsidy rates, increased by about 25 percent in 2026, according to KFF.
Initial premium rates for 2027 were filed in mid-June and will be finalized by Aug. 12, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
The Peterson-KFF analysis was based on 77 plans across 16 jurisdictions.
Those were Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, and Washington. However, only partial data were available for Hawaii, Illinois, and Texas.
For 2026, 183 health plan issuers are participating in Obamacare, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
Despite the expiration of the enhanced subsidies, the vast majority (87 percent) of 2026 Obamacare enrollees receive an advance premium tax credit, according to the Healthcare Financial Management Association.
The average enrollee who gets a federal subsidy receives a $650 credit, leaving a $96 monthly premium, according to data provided by KFF.
Subsidies are available to Americans with a household income of between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level. That equates to about $15,600 to $62,600 for an individual or about $32,200 to $128,600 for a family of four.
Current Obamacare enrollment is about 19.2 million—the highest for any year except 2025.
Georgetown University Center on Health Insurance Reforms published a similar preliminary analysis of 2027 rates on June 18. That report forecasted an enrollment decline in the individual market of 17 percent to 26 percent.
The Georgetown report estimated rate hikes ranging from about 7 percent in Vermont to about 22 percent in Washington.
Final rates for Obamacare plans will be posted in October. Open enrollment begins Nov. 1.
