IN-DEPTH: 6 GOP Candidates Qualify So Far for RNC Presidential Debate

Republican presidential candidate businessman Vivek Ramaswamy greets guests at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition Spring Kick-Off in Clive, Iowa, on April 22, 2023. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Six Republican presidential candidates have qualified to participate in the first Republican National Committee (RNC) debate on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, with at least two others in the 14-candidate field likely to do so in the coming weeks.

Former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former South Carolina Gov. and Trump administration United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie have met the RNC’s criteria to qualify for the debate as of July 24.

Of course, while six have qualified and at least two others—former Vice President Mike Pence and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson—are likely to, that doesn’t mean they will all show up.

Mr. Trump, who is far-and-away leading in all polls, with 13 months to go before the RNC convention, has not committed to appearing in the Milwaukee debate or a second one tentatively set for the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.

Mr. Trump in interviews and campaign stumps has cited former front-runner President Ronald Reagan when publicly questioned about his tactic of declining debates, saying he has nothing to gain from being on the same stage with challengers who are all gunning for him.

While Mr. Trump has the luxury to ponder attending the debate, for most of the other candidates, qualifying for the first debate to gain the national exposure being on that stage would provide is essential.

Not making the first debate stage could be the death knell for several long-shot campaigns, including those of North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, conservative talk show host Larry Elder, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, Michigan businessman Perry Johnson, Texas entrepreneur Ryan Binkley, and former Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas).

Mr. Hurd has likely disqualified himself by saying he won’t sign a loyalty pledge to support whoever the ultimate GOP nominee is in the 2024 campaign to unseat President Joe Biden. Mr. Trump has also not committed to signing the pledge.

Former President Donald J. Trump speaks during the Faith and Freedom Road to Majority conference at Hilton in Washington on June 24, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

Polls and Donors

The RNC debate qualifications are broken down into three categories: polling, fundraising, and the candidate pledge.

Debate polling criteria require candidates to poll at least 1 percent in three national polls, or 1 percent in two national polls and 1 percent in one of the four early Republican primary states—Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

The polls must be conducted between July 1 and Aug. 21, two days before the first debate, when candidates must also sign the party’s pledge before setting foot on stage.

The fundraising qualification requires candidates to garner at least 40,000 “unique” donors, including at least 200 unique donors from 20 or more states and territories.

The RNC and Chair Ronna McDaniel have defended the threshold requirements as a precursory “success metric” to weed out marginal campaigns and to avoid a repeat of 2016’s two-tiered debates that spanned two nights.

The RNC maintains if a candidate cannot garner a donation—even for as little as a $1—from 40,000 people when there were more than 2.5 million donors who gave to GOP candidates in the 2022 midterms via WinRed, the Republican fundraising platform, then maybe they don’t belong in the 2024 race.

Nevertheless, the RNC has scheduled a second night of debate for Aug. 24 should there be too many candidates to squeeze onto the stage.

The six candidates formally qualified for the debate with results from two July 15-19 Fox Business Network surveys in Iowa and South Carolina posted on July 23.

In Iowa, where 806 “likely” GOP voters were polled, Mr. Trump scored 46 percent of the tally, with Mr. DeSantis scoring 16 percent and Mr. Scott coming in third at 11 percent.

Senator Tim Scott (R-S.C.) meets with guests at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition in Clive, Iowa, on April 22, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

Mr. Ramaswamy came in fourth, garnering 6 percent, Ms. Haley 5 percent, Mr. Pence 4, Mr. Burgum 3, Mr. Christie 3, Mr. Hutchinson 1, and Mr. Suarez 1.

In South Carolina, where 808 “likely” Republican voters were surveyed, 48 percent said they are voting for Mr. Trump, with Ms. Haley in second with 14 percent, Mr. DeSantis at 13 percent, and Mr. Scott registering 10 percent.

Mr. Pence at 6 percent came in fifth in South Carolina, Mr. Ramaswamy sixth at 3 percent, Mr. Christie at 2 percent, and Mr. Hutchinson at 1 percent. None of the other hopefuls hit the 1 percent threshold.

As of July 24, the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregator has Mr. Trump nearly 30 percentage points over the rest of the pack scoring 51 percent, with Mr. DeSantis in a distant second at 18.9 percent and, unexpectedly, Mr. Ramaswamy in third scoring 6.4 percent.

The combined major polls put Mr. Pence, at 6.3 percent, in fourth, followed by Mr. Christie (3.5 percent), Ms. Haley (3.4 percent), Mr. Scott (3.2 percent), Mr. Hutchinson (1.2 percent), and Mr. Burgum (0.1 percent). The remaining candidates do not register in the polls—0.0—including Mr. Suarez.

Money Count: Trump, DeSantis ... Ramaswamy

Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis talks to reporters after walking in the Fourth of July Parade in the rain in Merrimack, N.H., on July 4, 2023. (Brian Snyder/Reuters)

According to their campaigns and the RNC, Mr. Pence has not secured the needed 40,000 donors as of July 24—although he is confident he will meet that threshold in time.

Mr. Hutchinson needs to register at least 1 percent in one more national poll to qualify, while Mr. Burgum needs to do so in two national polls. Mr. Hurd and Mr. Suarez each need one state and two national polls to qualify.

Mr. Elder,  Mr. Johnson, and Mr. Binkley have failed to garner a 1 percent showing in any qualifying poll, although they have to Aug. 21 to qualify.

According to the Trump campaign’s second-quarter campaign finance filing with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC), the former president raised nearly $36 million in contributions between April 1 to June 30, and began July 1 with $22.5 million cash on hand.

As in polling, Mr. DeSantis has raised the second most amount of campaign money, with his second-quarter FEC report documenting nearly $20.5 million in contributions and $12.24 million in cash on hand.

Ramaswamy has posted the third most in donations—although half his campaign is currently self-funded.

He announced in a July 22 statement that he had garnered the 40,000 unique donors, with at least 200 unique contributors from 20 or more states and territories, to qualify for the debate.

“I began in March at 0.0 percent in the polls. Look at the national polling averages now,” he said, referring to some polls that have him in double-figures and challenging Mr. DeSantis. “I’m consistently polling at third nationally. And that’s ahead of even the first debate when many people in this country haven’t yet gotten to know who I am.”

In fact, Ramaswamy said, his campaign is beginning to look a bit like another memorable underdog effort, noting “we’re on the same trajectory or ahead of where Donald Trump was in 2015, nationally polling against—ahead of a former vice president and numerous governors and U.S. senators.”

Ramaswamy said his campaign has nearly 70,000 individual donors. According to his campaign’s FEC report, he raised nearly $19.165 million in April, May, and June, beginning July 1 with $9 million in the bank. He’s made three personal loans to his campaign collectively totaling $15.25 million.

Ms. Hailey’s second-quarter campaign FEC report showed $10.469 million in April-June contributions with $6.813 million in the bank on July 1.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks at a town hall event in Bedford, New Hampshire, on April 26, 2023. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

According to Mr. Scott’s second-quarter campaign FEC report, he raised $7.581 million between April and June and began July 1 with $21.1 million in the bank—second only to Mr. Trump in terms of cash on hand.

Mr. Christie’s campaign, which announced on July 12 that it had met the polling and donor criteria to qualify for the debate, in its second-quarter FEC report said it raised $1,656 million and had $1.59 million cash on hand July 1.

Two—Maybe Three—On the Bubble

While he has easily surpassed the polling criteria, Mr. Pence had not reached the 40,000 individual donor threshold as of July 24.

“We will qualify. Getting 40,000 donors in just a few short weeks is a challenge,” Pence said on Fox and Friends last week. “We’re not offering gift cards, not offering kickbacks or tickets to soccer games, just traveling.”

According to his campaign’s FEC report, Mr. Pence raised $1.169 million in the second quarter and began July 1 with $1.1 million cash on hand.

Republican presidential candidate, former Vice President Mike Pence is given the "Defender of Israel" award by the founder and National Chairman for Christians United For Israel (CUFI), evangelical pastor John Hagee (right) during the 2023 Christians United for Israel summit in Arlington, Va., on July 17, 2023. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Mr. Hutchinson, who secured pivotal 1 percent showings in the Fox Business Iowa and South Carolina polls, is still well short of the 40,000 donor requirement, according to his campaign.

In separate weekend interviews, the former Arkansas governor said he believes he’s get onto the debate stage but will “need a lot of help to get there.

According to his campaign’s FEC report. Mr. Hutchinson raised $582,521 in the second quarter and began July 1 with $378,677 cash on hand.

Mr. Burgum is two 1-percent poll showings short and struggling to meet the donor criteria although he’s largely self-funding and spending a great deal of money on TV advertisements in Iowa—where it paid off with a 3 percent showing—and in New Hampshire.

According to his campaign’s second-quarter FEC report, Mr. Burgum raised $11.768 million between April and June with $10,186 million coming from his own loan. His campaign began July 1 with $3.654 million in the bank.

In his campaign’s second-quarter FEC report, Mr. Suarez documents $945,450 in donations with $898,850 in the back on July 1.

According to his campaign’s second-quarter FEC report, Mr. Hurd raised $273,512 between April and June—he only joined the race in mid-June—with $245,118 in the bank.

Despite daunting odds, Mr. Burgum, Mr. Suarez, and Mr. Hurd, even though he says he won’t sign the pledge, are all fundraising to qualify for the debate, $1 at a time.

For a $1 contribution, Burgum’s campaign will give a donor a $20 “Biden Economic Relief Card.”

“The burden on American families caused by the Democrats is unruly, and Joe Biden is doing nothing to fix it. We want to help, so we’re offering YOU a $20 gift card, and all YOU have to do is contribute $1 to claim it,” his social media campaign ads say.

Mr. Suarez’s SOS America PAC is also offering deals for a dollar donation.

“Donate $1 to be entered in a raffle to win a FREE YEAR of college!  All proceeds go to help defeat Biden in 2024. Enter now below!” ads on his campaign social media say.

Mr. Hurd isn’t offering any deals but claims sending him a dollar is a buck well-spent.

“There are more people in the Republican Party that dislike Donald Trump than like Donald Trump,” he said in a Twitter post. “If you’re fed up with Trump, donate $1 today and help me stand up to him on the GOP debate stage.”