Five Key Elections to Watch in 2023

Kentucky's Gov. Andy Beshear speaks during a news conference after an assailant opened fire at an Old National Bank branch in Louisville, Ky., on April 10, 2023. (Luke Sharrett/Getty Images)

With the looming question of whether President Joe Biden will be elected to another term, and Democrats and Republicans jockeying for positions to wrestle over control of Congress, the eyes of many Americans are fixated on 2024.

Yet there are numerous off-year statewide races across the country in 2023 that could set the stage for higher-profile elections next year.

Gubernatorial races in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi could have an impact on the 2024 presidential election in those states.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin speaks to members of the press after casting an early ballot on Sept. 23, 2021, in Fairfax, Virginia. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is term-limited, so Republicans see an opportunity for victory.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) and Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) are seeking another term and face significant challenges.

State legislative elections in New Jersey and Virginia will determine what party holds majority control.

Kentucky Governor’s Race

Mr. Beshear, the son of a former Kentucky governor who serves in a state that former President Donald Trump won by 25 points in 2020, is running for a second term after winning in 2019 by less than a percentage point in a contentious race against former Gov. Matt Bevin.

An October 2022 poll from Morning Consult showed that Mr. Beshear was rated one of the 10 most popular governors in the United States with a 59 percent approval rating.

Republicans have criticized Mr. Beshear’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, claiming that he did not work with the GOP-controlled state legislature in enacting mandates.

Mr. Beshear does not link himself to national Democrats and focuses more on local and state issues.

In an interview with The Associated Press in late December, Mr. Beshear criticized Mr. Trump as well as Mr. Biden. He insisted that he did not need or seek Biden’s help for his gubernatorial re-election campaign.

Republican challengers are reminding voters that Beshear vetoed a bill banning transgender youth from medical treatment, which was overridden by the GOP-controlled legislature.

State Attorney General Daniel Cameron won the Republican primary. He is endorsed by Mr. Trump.

Mr. Cameron received 47.7 percent of the vote compared to state agricultural commissioner Ryan Quarles (21.7 percent) and Kelly Craft, who was the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations under Mr. Trump (17.2 percent).

Mr. Beshear handily won the Democrat primary with 91.3 percent of the vote.

The general election is set for Nov. 7.

Louisiana Governor’s Race

Mr. Bel Edwards cannot seek another term because of term limits.

Mr. Trump won Louisiana in 2020. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the Louisiana governor’s race as “lean Republican.”

Nine candidates are running to replace Mr. Bel Edwards in the all-party primary set for Oct. 14.

Louisiana uses a majority vote system in its elections. Candidates from both parties appear on the primary ballot. A candidate can win outright with more than 50 percent of the vote. If no candidate reaches that threshold, the top two vote recipients advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

A recent poll conducted by Kaplan Strategies showed that 30 percent of the respondents support Mr. Landry while Democratic candidate Shawn Wilson was second at 22 percent.

Other Republicans running include state treasurer John Schroder, state representative Richard Nelson, state senate majority leader Sharon Hewitt, and Stephen Waguespack. Independent Hunter Lundy is also in the race.

There was speculation that Republican Sen. John Kennedy would run for governor, but two months after securing another congressional term, he announced he would stay in the Senate.

The general election will be held on Nov. 18.

Mr. Landry, who is endorsed by Mr. Trump, was elected Louisiana’s attorney general in 2015 and won another term in 2019. He served in the U.S. House from 2011 to 2013.

A Remington Research Group poll completed on June 25 showed that Mr. Wilson leads the race with 27 percent followed by Mr. Landry (25 percent) and Mr. Waguespack (16 percent).

Mississippi Governor’s Race

In Mississippi, both senators and all but one House member are Republicans.

Mr. Reeves, a Republican, won his first term in 2019 against Democrat Jim Hood, who was the state’s attorney general at the time.

Morning Consult reported that 49 percent of the state’s registered voters approved of Mr. Reeves in the last quarter of 2022.

Brandon Presley, who is Mississippi Public Service Commissioner for the Northern District and a distant relative of Elvis Presley, has no major opposition in the Democrat primary.

Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves signs the bill retiring the last state flag with the Confederate battle emblem during a ceremony at the Governor's Mansion in Jackson, Miss., on June 30, 2020. (Rogelio V. Solis/AFP via Getty Images)

He has secured endorsements from national Democrats, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, and Mr. Bel Edwards.

Mr. Bel Edwards and Mr. Murphy have hosted fundraisers for Presley.

Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) is also backing Mr. Presley, who in a campaign video promoted his ties to the more widely known Mr. Presley, saying: “My cousin grew up just down the road in Tupelo. You’ve probably heard of him.”

Mr. Reeves, 48, has served as governor of Mississippi since 2020. He was lieutenant governor from 2012 to 2020 under former Republican Gov. Phil Bryant state treasurer from 2004 to 2012 under former Republican Gov. Haley Barbour.

Mr. Reeves has touted the passage of “the largest tax cut in state history, returning half a billion dollars to Mississippians.”

He has also discussed eliminating the income tax, and told The Epoch Times that:  “Our state banned critical race theory and Biden’s vaccine mandates, and ensured boys play boys’ sports and girls play girls’ sports.”

Mr. Reeves has also praised Mississippi for leading the nation in the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which he called “the greatest social conservative win in a generation.”

He said he wants to expand pro-life policies that would support mothers and their babies.

Mr. Reeves was widely chastised by Democrats for a hands-off response to what they deemed a hands-off approach to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Democrats are railing against Mr. Reeves for newly passed legislation that bans ballot harvesting in Mississippi. The measure, which took effect on July 1, is being challenged in court by several civil rights organizations that claim it will harm minority voters and those with disabilities.

The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC), Mississippi Center for Justice, American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), ACLU-MS, and Disability Rights Mississippi (DRMS) filed a federal lawsuit challenging S.B. 2358, which prevents a third party from collecting an absentee ballot from a voter and delivering it to a polling place.

A Democrat has not been elected as governor of Mississippi since 1999 when Lt. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove prevailed. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rank the race “likely Republican.”

Virginia State Legislature

Two years after Republicans flipped control of the House of Delegates and the governor’s mansion, both chambers of Virginia’s General Assembly are up for grabs.

All 40 seats in the state senate and all 100 seats in the state House of Delegates are up for election this year.

Democrats currently have a slim advantage with 22 seats compared to 18 for Republicans.

Republicans have a 50 to 46 majority in the House of Delegates. Four seats are vacant.

Democrats hope that managing control of both chambers will help them contend with Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Mr. Youngkin supports a 15-week ban on abortion to push back on the current law, which allows the procedure up to the end of the second trimester. Senate Democrats voted to block the proposal in January.

New Jersey State Legislature

Democrats have control of both state legislative chambers in New Jersey, but Republicans believe they can flip one or both.

Democrats control the state Senate with a 24-16 majority and the General Assembly with a 46-34 majority.

A proposed measure that will determine abortion access statewide is expected to appear on the 2023 ballot. Pundits believe that will impact who wins state legislative races.

Democrats benefited from increased voter turnout in states that had similar initiatives during midterms last year.