Election Forecasters Shift Ratings in Texas Senate Race After Paxton Nomination

Texas voters have not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, when Sen. Lloyd Bentsen won reelection.

Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks at an election night watch party held by the Lone Star Liberty PAC at the Dallas/Plano Marriott at Legacy Town Center in Plano, Texas, on May 26, 2026. Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in a Senate primary runoff election and will face Democrat James Talarico in the November general election. Stewart F. House/Getty Images

Two top election forecasters this week shifted their ratings of the Texas Senate race after state Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff.

The Cook Political Report on May 26 and Sabato’s Crystal Ball on May 27 both moved the seat from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican,” a one-step shift on the scales they use to rate the competitiveness of federal races. The new ratings still favor Republicans, but signal that the forecasters now view the race as closer than before.