California Braces for Hurricane Hilary’s ‘Catastrophic’ Impacts

Hurricane Hilary, (R), off Mexico’s Pacific coast in this Aug. 18, 2023, 1:10 p.m. EDT satellite image. (NOAA via AP)

Hurricane Hilary, a powerful Category 3 storm, is on a collision course with the central Baja California peninsula, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Saturday, while warning about its potentially catastrophic impact in parts of Mexico and southwestern United States, including deadly floods and mudslides.

The eye of Hurricane Hilary was located around 235 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California and about 395 miles southeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico, per the latest advisory from the NHC, issued at 9 a.m. ET on Aug. 19.

At the time of the advisory, the Category 3 hurricane was moving north-northwest at around 16 mph, with forecasters expecting it to pick up speed over the next day or two but weaken before making landfall in southern California.

“Hilary is still expected to be a hurricane when it moves near or over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula, but is expected to decay  to a tropical storm before it moves over southern California,” NHC forecaster John Cangialosi said in a discussion note.

Maximum sustained winds were near 125 mph with higher gusts, per the latest advisory.

Waves break in a beach as Hurricane Hilary rushes toward Mexico's Baja California peninsula, in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, on Aug. 18, 2023. (Monserrat Zavala/Reuters)

The latest projected path shows Hurricane Hilary is expected to hit a thinly populated region of the Baja peninsula, approximately 200 miles to the south of the Pacific port city of Ensenada.

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The storm is then predicted to move north, with concerns about intense rainfall triggering dangerous flooding and mudslides in Tijuana, where many homes in the 1.9 million city are perched on steep hillsides.

Tijuana Mayor Montserrat Caballero Ramirez told The Associated Press that the city was setting up four shelters in high-risk zones and warning people in risky zones.

“We are a vulnerable city being on one of the most visited borders in the world and because of our landscape,” she said.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin, while a hurricane watch is in effect for the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada.

A tropical storm warning is also in effect for several areas, including the entire east coast of the Baja California peninsula and from Punta Abreojos southward.

Police officers and lifesavers stand at a breakwater that was closed as a security measure by local authorities while Hurricane Hilary rushes toward Mexico's Baja California peninsula, in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, on Aug. 18, 2023. (Monserrat Zavala/Reuters)

California In The Eye Of The Storm

Even though Hurricane Hilary is predicted to weaken before hitting the west coast of the United States, it will still bring dangerous impacts.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for a wide swath of southern California from the Pacific coast to interior mountains and deserts. Authorities are actively discussing evacuation strategies for Catalina Island in California.

“I don’t think any of us—I know me particularly—never thought I’d be standing here talking about a hurricane or a tropical storm,” said Janice Hahn, chair of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors.

A Seal Beach resident walks past a home protected with sandbags in Seal Beach, Calif., on Aug. 18, 2023. (Damian Dovarganes/AP Photo)

Robbie Munroe, a forecaster with the National Weather Service, put Hurricane Hilary in a historic context.

“We have the first tropical storm watch ever issued for LA County,” Mr. Munroe said, adding the last time a tropical storm made landfall in California was back in 1939.

Outer bands of moisture—showers and thunderstorms—will start building in southern California on Saturday afternoon, and “things really deteriorate” with peak impacts on Sunday evening and into Monday as Hilary is expected to maintain tropical storm strength, Mr. Munroe said.

Forecasters said that predictions about the exact track of Hurricane Hilary aren’t crucial because its strong winds and heavy rain will affect a large area far from the eye of the storm.

Workers prepare to cover a slide-ridden hillside with plastic tarp in the hopes to protect it from the rain expected with upcoming storm Hilary in San Clemente, California, on Aug. 18, 2023. (Mike Blake/Reuters)

‘Dangerous to Catastrophic Flooding’

Between 3 and 6 inches of rain are expected across parts of southern California and southern Nevada, though forecasters warn that in some spots it could be as much as 10 inches.

“Dangerous to catastrophic flooding is expected” across portions of southern California and southern Nevada, the NHC said in the advisory.

Elsewhere, across parts of the western United States, rainfall between 1 and 3 inches is expected, with significant localized flash floods.

“Preparations for flooding impacts should be completed as soon as possible, as heavy rainfall will begin well in advance of the center,” Mr. Cangialosi said in the discussion note.

The forecaster added that, in the southwestern United States, “the potentially historic amount of rainfall” could cause flash flooding, including landslides, mudslides, and debris flows.

Coastal areas are also bracing for a potential storm surge, which could lead to damaging flooding. Dangerous waves and surge are anticipated along the western Baja California peninsula, and coastal areas along the Gulf of California are also at risk, according to the NHC advisory.

“Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next couple of days,” Mr. Cangialosi said. “These swells are likely to cause life-threatening  surf and rip current conditions.”

Officials have urged residents within the warning and watch areas to take immediate precautions to safeguard life and property.

Residents have also been encouraged to closely monitor updates from their local National Weather Service forecast offices and national meteorological services for the latest information.

President Joe Biden announced that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) had strategically placed personnel and resources in the affected region.

“I urge everyone, everyone in the path of this storm, to take precautions and listen to the guidance of state and local officials,” President Biden told reporters Friday at Camp David, where he was meeting with the leaders of Japan and South Korea.