After Historic Iowa Win, Trump Faces Tougher Terrain in New Hampshire

Ahead of New Hampshire’s primary Jan. 23, unusual factors may be boosting contender Nikki Haley. Both camps express confidence they can win.

(Left) Former President Donald Trump in Atkinson, N.H., on Jan. 16, 2024. (Right) Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley in West Des Moines, Iowa, on Jan. 15, 2024. Brandon Bell, Joe Raedle/Getty Images

After achieving a record-breaking victory in the Iowa caucuses, former President Donald Trump now faces a smaller field of competitors but a bigger challenge in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary.

Political analysts still say the odds and momentum appear to favor President Trump, but the political climate in the Granite State differs significantly from Iowa’s.

When New Hampshire voters head to the polls on Jan. 23, they'll have a choice among three Republican candidates vying for the GOP’s presidential nomination. Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out after placing fourth in Iowa and endorsed President Trump.

Since April 2023, right after President Trump was indicted in the first of four criminal cases, he hasn’t dipped below 50 percent support in the national RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of opinion polls.

Since mid-July 2023, none of his challengers has broken the 20-percent mark in the nationwide average.

But in New Hampshire, the picture looks less lopsided. And the territory is more hostile to President Trump.

There, candidate Nikki Haley, who served as United Nations ambassador while President Trump was in office, appears to be polling “within striking distance,” Tim Hagle, a University of Iowa political science professor, told The Epoch Times.

Ms. Haley, who also served two terms as the governor of South Carolina, rated below 10 percent in New Hampshire this summer. But she now commands a 33.5-percent polling average. President Trump remains in the lead with 46.3 percent, 12.8 percent above Ms. Haley, in New Hampshire.

That margin would be comfortable for most politicians. But it may be less secure in this instance for several reasons.

Unusual Circumstances

Ms. Haley’s support could rise because she’s likely to gain a share of the 12 percent of New Hampshire voters who were supporting former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; he exited the race on Jan. 10, five days before Mr. Ramaswamy did.

And there’s a caveat: Recent polling in New Hampshire has produced conflicting results. While St. Anselm College’s Jan. 17 poll shows a 14-point lead for President Trump, the poll by American Research Group said the two candidates were tied.

The structure of New Hampshire’s primary election system could work to Ms. Haley’s advantage.

New Hampshire is among seven states in which “unaffiliated voters” can participate in any party’s primary. Registered Democrats who switched to Republican before the Oct. 6, 2023, deadline may vote in the Republican primary, the New Hampshire secretary of state’s website states.

Ms. Haley has embraced policies that some people describe as “moderate,” although detractors have called her a “globalist” and even accused her of being a “Democrat puppet.”

She supports continued U.S. funding for wars in Ukraine and Israel. This stance rankles fiscally conservative, America-first Republicans who protest U.S. involvement in “endless wars,” but it appeals to hawkish Democrats.

Ms. Haley reportedly attracted some crossover votes in Iowa. Although President Trump won 98 of Iowa’s 99 counties, she won Democrat-dominant Johnson County by just one vote.

But she and Mr. DeSantis both failed to “close the gap” on Mr. Trump, according to Mr. Hagle.

“That makes the path for both of them harder,” he said.

Political Clout Touted

In New Hampshire, Ms. Haley’s candidacy is getting a big boost from the state’s most prominent political family, the Sununus.

They’re all “actively campaigning against President Trump,” political commentator Newt Gingrich, a former speaker of the House, pointed out. The family packs a lot of political firepower with “two governors and a senator,” he told The Epoch Times.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu endorsed Ms. Haley; so did his father, former Gov. John H. Sununu, and his brother, former Sen. John E. Sununu.

With all those circumstances in play, New Hampshire is the one state where Ms. Haley might get ahead of President Trump, according to Mr. Gingrich.

“But I don’t think it’s likely,” Mr. Gingrich said.

Momentum favors President Trump following his resounding Iowa victory, he said.

But because Mr. DeSantis beat Ms. Haley in Iowa by a small margin—about 2 percent—“she can argue that it still gives her some momentum coming out of Iowa,” Mr. Hagle said.

And Ms. Haley essentially tried to do just that. She declared that the Iowa caucuses, where she finished in third place, had transformed the GOP presidential primary into “a two-person race.”

By making that statement, Ms. Haley “basically undercut her own credibility,” according to Mr. Gingrich.

Her campaign stated that the third candidate, Mr. DeSantis, lacks “substantial support” in two states with presidential contests following Iowa’s: New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Mr. DeSantis is garnering only 6 percent support in the New Hampshire RCP average.

Yet, according to RCP, Ms. Haley could be poised to lose her home state’s Republican primary on Feb. 24. As of Jan. 18, President Trump was leading her by 30 points, and he was ahead of Mr. DeSantis by 41 points.

A win in New Hampshire could help shift Ms. Haley’s fortunes in South Carolina, Mr. Hagle said.

Ms. Haley’s campaign asserted in an email: “Nikki is ready for the coming battle. ... Nikki is the only Trump alternative with the resources and breadth of support to take the fight to Trump for the long haul.”

In a message that Ms. Haley posted to her campaign website, she said: “As we head to New Hampshire, I have one more thing to say: ‘Underestimate Me. That’s Always Fun.’”

‘Leader of a National Movement’

Mr. Gingrich said President Trump remains a resilient political force; he has weathered situations that might have easily toppled other candidates.

“To understand what’s happening, you have to start with the idea that Trump is not a candidate, in a traditional sense,” Mr. Gingrich said. “Trump is the leader of a national movement, and movement leaders are different to deal with than other candidates.”

Whenever “the left tries to put him in legal jeopardy,” his followers don’t say, “Oh, gee, I’m confused,” he said. Instead, they rise to his defense.

Asked to respond to characterizations that President Trump’s supporters have a cultlike devotion to him, Mr. Gingrich replied, “Well, I don’t think that the movement for the American Revolution that [George] Washington led was a cult.

“Do these people actually believe what they believe? Or do they believe whatever Trump tells them?

“And the fact is, he is very careful to reflect [the beliefs of] his supporters. The anger about immigration is not because Donald Trump says having 10 million people cross the border illegally is bad. People are mad about immigration because they think having 10 million people cross the border illegally is bad.”

One politician willing to be blunt about such problems was President Trump; the 45th president has often been credited with serving as the voice for the “forgotten men and women” of the United States, according to Mr. Gingrich.

“I think here’s the great problem for the elite, as they’re being repudiated,” he said. “Rather than say, ‘Gosh, what are we doing wrong?’ they have to blame the American people.

“[Their attitude is:] ‘If you’re for Donald Trump, you must have some psychological problem.’”

By and large, however, President Trump’s supporters are solid citizens who are fed up with government policies that are hurting them and the nation, according to Mr. Gingrich.

Significance of Iowa Debated

The proportions of President Trump’s Iowa win reflect that, according to Mr. Gingrich.

“He set a new record, which probably will not be broken in our lifetimes,” he said.

No Republican candidate in competitive Iowa caucuses had ever won with more than 50 percent of the total votes, as Trump did with 51 percent.

And his nearly 30-percent margin of victory more than doubled the previous Republican record in Iowa, 12.8 percent, set in 1988.

But Ms. Haley’s campaign, in a “state of the race memo” sent via email on Jan. 15, discounted those results.

“[Voters in the Iowa caucuses] are among the most pro-Trump of any electorate in America ... [but] 49 percent preferred someone else,” the memo reads. “That’s far from the ringing endorsement of Trump that the media portrays. The race now moves to less-Trump-friendly territory.”

On Jan. 18, just five days before the New Hampshire election, Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary for the Trump campaign, said Ms. Haley most likely can’t make up the deficit that most polls are showing.

She thinks Ms. Haley is counting on Democrat-to-Republican crossovers and “unaffiliated” voters to carry her through. But, Ms. Leavitt told The Epoch Times, that effort appears doomed because New Hampshire voters who lack party affiliation tend to turn out in smaller numbers.

“Republican primary voters are going to turn out for Donald Trump, as we saw in Iowa,” Ms. Leavitt said.

Trump Keeps Fighting

As evidenced by his trips to Iowa, New Hampshire, and New York in recent days, mingling campaign stops with court appearances, the former president has maintained a grueling schedule. Ms. Leavitt said his tenacity is unparalleled.

There have been efforts to remove his name from ballots in various states. He’s also defending himself against mostly Democrat-backed court cases, both criminal and civil.

Although Democrats and others say President Trump deserves to be held accountable for his alleged wrongdoing, he has dismissed the accusations as bogus “lawfare” and labeled the criminal charges as products of a “weaponized” U.S. justice system. He has also been subject to unprecedented gag orders that forbid him from saying certain things outside of court.

Ms. Leavitt said some media outlets have been complicit in trying to silence the former president; at least one national TV network, MSNBC, refused to air his Iowa victory speech, saying it would hurt the network’s credibility to air “lies.”

“The Democrats do not want Donald Trump to be able to spread his message to the masses because it’s a winning message that Americans will love, bringing peace, prosperity, and safety back to this country,” she said.

“The Democrats fear Donald Trump’s message of success because success brings unity and they want us to be divided.”

On Jan. 16, a day after his Iowa victory, he spoke in Atkinson, New Hampshire. That was the first in a series of at least five scheduled campaign stops in the state.

Other announced New Hampshire events were set for Jan. 19 in Concord, Jan. 20 in Manchester, and Jan. 21 in Rochester.

“President Trump remains in a dominant position to win the New Hampshire primary and that will be proven on Tuesday,” Ms. Leavitt said.

Mr. Gingrich said a history lesson is in order. In 2000, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) snared votes from independents and Democrats, enabling him to beat then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush in New Hampshire.

Mr. McCain “then got wiped out in South Carolina” and in other Republican-dominant states, according to Mr. Gingrich.

“Haley has the same problem. She is losing Republicans in New Hampshire by a big margin,” he said. “And her hope is that she can bring in Biden voters to temporarily be for her.”

If Republicans realize that Ms. Haley is drawing significant support from President Biden’s supporters, those Republicans will be less likely to vote for her because they don’t want to sabotage the Nov. 5 general election, Mr. Gingrich said.

Therefore, he predicted that Ms. Haley has no path forward after New Hampshire: “It’s the only state in the country that she might win.”

Jackson Richman contributed to this report.