An area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf of America has an 80 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours as it moves toward the northern Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters said a tropical depression is likely to form later Sunday or Monday as the system drifts slowly northward or northwestward. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued later Sunday for portions of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.
The system is also expected to bring heavy rainfall to parts of the northern Gulf Coast over the next several days. The National Hurricane Center said an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later Sunday.
The system has an 80 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation during both the next 48 hours and the next seven days.
The National Hurricane Center defines the Hurricane Season in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of America as running from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Through July 19, only one named storm has affected the United States during the Atlantic hurricane season.
Tropical Storm Arthur hit the U.S. on June 17–18. It made landfall near Galveston, Texas, with peak winds of 40 mph. The storm caused flooding along portions of the Gulf Coast.
No hurricanes (Category 1 or stronger) have made landfall in the United States so far during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Before the Atlantic hurricane season began, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast a below-normal 2026 season, saying there was a 55 percent chance of below-average activity, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.
NOAA predicted eight to 14 named storms, including three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes, compared with an average season of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Forecasters said the expected development of El Niño, which typically suppresses tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic, was the primary reason for the quieter outlook, although they emphasized that it only takes one storm to produce a devastating hurricane season.
