There were 5.8 million borrowers with payments being 90 days or more past due as of April, TransUnion said. When payments become 270 days past due, the borrower enters default status. “It is estimated that nearly one-third, approximately 1.8 million, could reach default status in July 2025.”
Once a borrower hits default status, the consequences can be severe.
The borrower can lose eligibility for additional federal student aid, become ineligible for assistance under most of the federal benefit programs, see their tax refunds and federal benefit payments being withheld, and be brought to court by the lender, according to the department.
“The default is reported to national consumer reporting agencies, damaging your credit rating and affecting your ability to buy a car or house or to get a credit card,” it said. “It may take years to reestablish a good credit record.”
Moreover, the entire unpaid balance, along with any interest owed, can become “immediately due.”
Congress had mandated that the collections begin in October 2023. However, the Biden administration “refused to lift the collections pause and kept borrowers in a confusing limbo,” the department said, adding that resuming loan collection prevents taxpayers from having to shoulder the cost of these loans.
According to TransUnion, the 1.8 million borrowers that could hit default status next month may only be the beginning of a significant jump in such cases.
The company is projecting an additional one million of the 5.8 million borrowers to hit default status in August, followed by two million more in September.
“We continue to see more and more federal student loan borrowers being reported as the 90+ days delinquent, making a larger number of consumers vulnerable to entering default and the start of collections activities,” said Michael Raneri, head of U.S. Research and Consulting at TransUnion.
“That said, based on the relatively small increase between March 2025 and April 2025, it is possible that the figures are close to peaking.”
Raneri advised federal student loan borrowers who are at risk of default to contact their lenders and learn about ways to avoid defaulting, which include securing income-driven payment plans and loan rehabilitation programs.
Struggling Graduates
The risk of default among student loan borrowers is occurring while the labor market for recent college graduates has become challenging.Moreover, the underemployment rate “rose sharply” to 41.2 percent, it said.
Underemployment rate is the share of college graduates engaged in a job that typically does not require a college degree.
The bank called the labor market condition for recent college graduates as having “deteriorated noticeably” in Q1.
“We’re seeing a lot of revised expectations: delayed hiring and investment, pared-back expansion plans, lowered key performance indicators,” said Tom Hood, executive vice president of business engagement and growth at the AICPA.
“The data shows a clear pivot from optimism to caution. Businesses are bracing for volatility, and the uncertainty around tariffs is amplifying that shift.”
“Navigating the transition from campus to career can be a challenge for new grads, especially given the unpredictable market this class is stepping into,” said ZipRecruiter CEO Ian Siegel.
“The grads who will come out ahead are those who start their search early, stay open to different paths, and keep at it, even if things don’t go exactly as planned.”







