Up to 80 Percent Chance Recession Could Occur, Cash Rate to Peak at 4.8 Percent: RBA Internal Research

Pedestrians move past a billboard along George Street in Sydney, Australia on Oct. 18, 2022. Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images

The probability of a recession in Australia occurring before the end of 2024 could be as high as 80 percent, according to modelling by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Internal documents from September 2022 published on Thursday under Freedom of Information laws reveal the most likely period for a recession has already passed.