The Consequences of Threat Deflation: Why Did the US Underestimate the Threat From China?

Military vehicles carry China's DF-41 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles in a military parade at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on Oct. 1, 2019. Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images

Commentary

One of the most significant strategic questions of our time is why the United States underestimated for decades the threat from the Chinese regime. Underestimating the threat, or threat deflation, is a rare event in international politics where a great power consistently does not perceive the rise of peer competitive threat.