The Changing Narrative About Ukraine

Tanks of pro-Russian troops drive along a street during Ukraine–Russia conflict in the town of Popasna in the Luhansk Region, Ukraine, on May 26, 2022. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters)

Commentary 

In March, when Vladimir Putin’s excellent adventure in Ukraine was just getting started, I wrote about some “prognostications” emitted by Francis “end-of-history” Fukuyama about the conflict.

Fukuyama, like the rest of the neocon war party, was giddy at the prospect of restarting the globalist machine.

There were two sides to the excitement.

One was the opportunity for moral showmanship.

Stock up on those blue and yellow Ukrainian flags, comrade, so you can demonstrate your solidarity with the latest politically correct cause.

Last year, it was Black Lives Matter.

Now, it’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the telegenic impresario of Ukraine.

Memo to self: Pick up some of those signature green T-shirts when stocking up on Ukraine flags.

New vocabulary item, courtesy of Bill Kristol: “Zelensky Democrats.” Liz Cheney is one, as of course is Kristol himself.

The other side of pro-Ukrainian sentiment is anti-Putin passion.

As I have noted elsewhere, Putin himself isn’t always on hand for the cathartic moments, so there are a lot of stand-ins recruited for the exercise.

The soprano Anna Netrebko, for example, has performed nearly 200 times at the Metropolitan Opera. But she won’t be performing there this year because she has had some nice words for the Russian dictator.

Something similar happened to Valery Gergiev.

He was supposed to be conducting the Vienna Philharmonic at Carnegie Hall, but his association with Putin put paid to that.

Even foodstuffs have been enlisted in the anti-Putin brigade.

“Quebec diner drops poutine from the menu—the word, not the dish—to denounce Putin.”

You can’t make it up.

But how is that roadshow going these days?

Among Fukuyama’s “prognostications” was the prediction that “Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine.”

Is it?

Everyone knows Putin’s invasion didn’t go as smoothly as he supposed it would. But notwithstanding the endless stories about the pluck and determination of the Ukrainians, the Russians don’t seem to have gotten Fukuyama’s memo.

According to Fukuyama, the Russian collapse will be “sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition.”

That was four months ago.

Now The Narrative has shifted.

These days, the media is full of sobering stories about Russian gains in eastern Ukraine.

In a column called “The unpalatable truth in Ukraine,” Andrew Latham points out what should have been obvious from the beginning.

The “least improbable outcome” of the war in Ukraine, Latham writes, “is a Russian victory.”

He hastens to add that he didn’t say such an outcome would be “desirable” or that Russia would wind up achieving everything it sought at the beginning of the conflict.

Indeed, Latham suggests that “Any conceivable Russian victory now will entail such a loss of blood and treasure that it will have to be judged Pyrrhic at best.”

Nevertheless, at the end of the day, it’s very likely that Russia will win in Ukraine.

“It will be a victory nonetheless—and we in the West had better come to grips with that hard truth.”

I wonder if President Joe Biden has read that column?

Or whether he has taken on board Henry Kissinger’s recent observation that ending the war in Ukraine will involve territorial concessions by Ukraine to Russia.

I say “I wonder,” but I don’t really.

Biden has bragged that his sanctions on Russia are “crushing” its economy.

Really?

Did you know that the ruble is at a four-year high and that Russia has the fifth-highest gold reserves in the world?

There’s no doubt Biden’s sanctions are taking a toll.

The trouble is, the toll is being paid by the American people.

The price of gasoline has more than doubled since Biden has been in office.

High energy prices, much higher, are right around the corner.

That means everything will be more expensive.

Not only will it cost more—much more—to fill your gas tank, it will also cost more to heat or cool your house, to buy an airline ticket, or to buy a loaf of bread.

The truth is, Biden’s sanctions on Russia, whatever their effect on the Russian economy, are having a devastating effect at home.

Donald Trump was fond of saying it would be “a good thing, not a bad thing” if the United States got on well with Russia.

Some people thought Trump was capitulating to Putin by acknowledging the fact that both the United States and Russia had legitimate interests and spheres of influence.

I believe Trump stood up effectively to Putin in ways that Putin understood.

One way was by making America energy independent, thus denying Russia some $74 million per day in oil sales to the United States.

By shuttering the Keystone XL Pipeline and pursuing the Pied Piper’s dream of “green energy,” Biden pandered to the left, but played right into Putin’s hand and helped to pay for the military action that Biden professes to deplore.

Another way that Trump stood up to Putin was through his effective demonstration of resolve in Syria in 2018, when U.S. forces destroyed an armored column of Russian mercenaries.

I am told that was the largest loss of Russian mercenaries at the hands of U.S. forces since the 1919 invasion of Siberia to help the White Russians.

Putin absorbed the lesson and backed off.

He invaded no other country while Trump was president.

With the ascension of Biden and his green energy agenda, a new day had dawned for Putin.

Just as he had gobbled up Crimea when Obama was president, so now he felt emboldened to attack and peel off more of Ukraine.

The war hasn’t worked out the way Putin hoped it would.

But the ham-handed response of Biden and the neocon war party has sharply exacerbated the conflict in Ukraine and has sparked an inflationary spiral in the U.S. economy.

This winter, Fukuyama told us that “there is no diplomatic solution to the war possible. ... There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine.”

We must all hope that he was wrong.

Fortunately for the world, he usually is.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.