Sudan Resigned to Separation, but Hopes for Peace (Video)

Sudanese supporters of secession wave regional flags and pro-separation placards upon the arrival of Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir at Juba airport on Jan. 4. Bashir told them in a speech in the southern capital that he would celebrate the result of thi Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images

Carter Upbeat Ahead of Sudan Vote (NTD Television)

Days before the start of Southern Sudan nation-making referendum on self-determination, Africa’s largest country is already preparing to split into two sovereign states. While a lack of unity is often viewed as a weakness, in Sudan it seems to be the sole hope for lasting peace, for both the north and south.

Sudan suffered 22 years of civil war caused by cultural, religious, and social differences. It ended in 2005 with the signing of a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between the major ruling political parties in the country: the National Congress Party in the north and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in the south. Sunday’s referendum is the last step in fulfilling the agreement.

Voting will take place Jan. 9 to 15 for the 3.9 million registered voters from Southern Sudan, and approximately 200,000 will vote from the north or overseas.

“The aim of the referendum and of the [south’s] secession is exactly for these conflicts to stop. On Jan. 9 people will decide once and for all what they want to do with their own country, what government they want, and by doing so they will put an end to the source of all conflicts,” says Dr. Francis G. Nazario, head of the Liaison Office of the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) in Brussels.

According to Nazario, Southern Sudan has wanted independence since the country was established in 1956 because Southerners have always felt excluded by the north.

“Since the beginning, the state of Sudan was defined as Arabic and Islamic, which excluded the whole majority of people in the country who are neither Arabic, nor Islamic.”

People in the south are considered more African, primarily following an Animist indigenous religion or Christianity.

Nazario says that the continued exclusion brought incessant tensions, which started first in the south, and then moved north.

“All those wars were actually an indication that the state, which established Sudan, has failed. A state, which excludes people cannot sustain its whole.”

While the split is widely seen as a symbol of freedom for the south, it is not a guarantee that the conflicts will cease.

“Unfortunately, secession will not mean the end of the struggles. The Darfur war still continues and in Southern Sudan there are still many tensions between different communities. So we will still see flaring of conflicts in Southern Sudan,” says Nico Plooijer, manager of the Africa Program at IKV Pax Christi, a peacekeeping organization based in the Netherlands.

Plooijer who has been observing the situation in Sudan for many years, says the biggest threat of conflict will be along the border between north and the oil-rich south, especially in Abyei, Kordofan, and Darfur.

“Small skirmishes will start and there is a piling up of troops around Abyei and in Kordofan, so they might turn into hotspots. Kordofan is next to Darfur, so if there is an escalation in Kordofan, linking to the people in Darfur, it would be impossible for the south not to be engaged in it.”

He explained that there are also people siding with the south but living in the Nuba Mountains in the north, who were under threat during the war—there was a jihad against them—and they are now “not happy with the situation they are in.”

“If the North consolidates and puts in action the Sharia law instead of another constitution, they will be again in a very difficult position. There are some indications that they [the people of Nuba] might take the arms to make their point.”

Plooijer says many people in Sudan carry handguns, and AK-47 assault rifles, and his organization works on a project to encourage people to disarm.

“We urge people to disarm voluntarily. After the referendum we see even less reason for people to carry guns in the streets.”

Bashir’s Next Move

Earlier this month, President Omar al-Bashir promised to support the referendum, regardless the outcome. This was viewed by many as a positive sign of his will to establish peace.

“Bashir’s statement was a very positive signal from him and from the government in the North, because this will bring peace, and the conflict and the chaos will be put to an end,” said Nazario, Southern Sudan’s representative in Brussels.

But others do not trust Bashir’s words.

“No one can predict what President Bashir will do. He is known to backtrack on many promises he has made in the past,” said Jacob J Akol, editor of Gurtong Trust & Media Project, based in Southern Sudan.

Bashir was charged with genocide and crimes against humanity in 2008 by the International Criminal Court for the genocide in Darfur that claimed 300,000 to 400,000 lives.

“President al-Bashir is under a lot of pressure, and making this promise was the only way out for him in the current moment,” says Plooijer from IKV Pax Christi.

The peacekeeping expert said he expects the situation in the north to become even more repressive after the referendum.

“Now Northern Sudan is run by security organizations, so they will suppress any opposition, like they are doing in Darfur now. And when the South goes, the position of Bashir is not the strongest so he will do a lot to consolidate his power,” says Plooijer.

According to Nazario, it is unlikely that the Northern opposition parties will gain any new power, or be able to overthrow Bashir, as they want to, in the aftermath of the referendum.

“Bashir still has a strong authority: he has the power, the army, and the economy; for sure he will continue to govern the country for quite a long time.”

Returning Home

 

More than 1.5 million people are expected to return home to the south within six months of the referendum, many fearing possible repression if they stay in the north after secession. Others plan to return home to join their new independent state.

For Ayman Elias Ibrahim, a Northern Sudanese reporter for The Citizen, an English daily based in Khartoum, the main challenges standing before both returnees and host communities in the South are food insecurity and access to drinkable water—-basic social services are inadequate or nonexistent, he says.

Another problem is that most returnees lack productive skills for a rural milieu, since while in displacement most worked as unskilled laborers, operating tea stands or brewing local alcohol.

Plooijer warned that an influx of a million people could destabilize the new country in the medium-term.

“When people came back from Uganda and Kenya during the peace period, they returned to their home places, and that brought tensions with the people who had always lived there.”

Nazario says that with its limited resources, the government is trying to provide returnees with minimum means like shelter, water, and medical services. Despite the challenges, he is confident this is a precious chance for these people.

“They have lived in refuge for so many years and their coming back is like giving them hope to return to the homeland.”

The GoSS representative is appealing to the international community for help and praised the assistance of the United States, the African Union, and the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) partners in the region and in Europe.

When Southern Sudan secedes as expected, the new state will be ruled at the start by the current president of the southern autonomous region, Salva Kiir Mayardit, who is also the serving vice president of the country. Legislative elections will be scheduled.

International Help

International organizations have been helping prepare Sudan for the referendum.

Kouider Zerrouk, spokesperson of the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) said that during voter registration, the U.N. supported delivery of materials to 70 locations. They made 96 flights within a few weeks to drop off over 64,000 pounds of polling materials to 50 locations that will serve 473 referendum centers in the South.

The European Union will have 120 observers in place, reports Ahmed Eltayeb, a press officer from the EU Mission in Sudan.