SYDNEY—Share markets were choppy on Monday as a slew of Chinese economic data confirmed the deadening effect of coronavirus restrictions on consumer spending, prompting Beijing to again ease monetary policy.
A holiday in the United States made for thin trading, but that did not stop Treasury futures from sliding further and Brent crude hitting a three-year top of $86.71 a barrel.
Worryingly for the world’s second-largest economy, retail sales rose only 1.7 percent year-on-year in December, missing forecasts for a 3.7 percent rise.
Industrial output did fare better and the economy as a whole grew a little above forecasts at 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter.
China’s central bank was also surprised by cutting some key lending rates by a sizable 10 basis points.
“The cut was larger than expected, suggesting that the authorities have become more preoccupied about weakness in the economy,” said Carlos Casanova, senior Asia economist at Union Bancaire Privee in Hong Kong.
“The latter (Omicron risks) will only start to be fully priced in the combined Jan-Feb data, as the most severe lockdowns started in late December.”
The easing seemed to help China blue chips, which edged up 0.9 percent in the wake of the data.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.3 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei bounced 0.8 percent after losing 1.2 percent last week.
Nasdaq futures slid another 0.3 percent, while S&P 500 futures lost 0.1 percent. EUROSTOXX 50 futures edged up 0.4 percent and FTSE futures were flat.
The main feature of the market recently has been a rotation into value stocks and away from growth, particularly technology. The S&P 500 information technology sector, which accounts for nearly 29 percent of the index, has shed 5.5 percent this year.
With valuations still high, earnings will have to be strong to stop further losses. Overall S&P 500 earnings are expected to climb 23.1 percent this season, according to Refinitiv IBES, while the tech sector is seen up by 15.6 percent.
Companies reporting this week include Goldman Sachs, BofA, Morgan Stanley, and Netflix.
The market will be spared speeches from U.S. Federal Reserve officials this week ahead of their Jan. 25-26 policy meeting, but there has been more than enough hawkish comments to see the market almost fully price in a first rate hike for March and rates of 1.0 percent by year end.
There was also talk the Fed will start trimming its balance sheet earlier than previously thought, draining some of the excess liquidity from world markets.
Yields on cash 10-year Treasuries climbed to their highest in a year at 1.8 percent last week, while the implied yield on futures jumped to 1.86 percent on Monday.
Beware the BOJ
A Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy meeting will be held this week, with financial markets watching whether the policy makers will revise up the outlook for growth and inflation.
On Monday the dollar had regained some ground to 114.45 yen still well above major chart support at 112.52.
The euro was a shade lower at $1.1414, while rising bond yields helped the dollar index inch up to 95.258 and away from a 10-week trough of 94.626 hit on Friday.
“We continue to think that the greenback will strengthen again before long, as we expect strong cyclical price pressures in the U.S. to mean the Fed tightens by more and for longer than investors currently discount,” argued Joseph Marlow, an economist at Capital Economics.
They see Fed rates topping 2.5 percent while the market has priced in a peak around 1.75-2.0 percent.
The risk of higher rates kept non-yielding gold restrained at $1,816 an ounce, while industrial and energy resources have benefited from resilient demand and limited supplies.
Oil prices have climbed for four weeks straight and such is demand that physical barrels of oil are changing hands at near record high premiums.
Brent added another 13 cents to $86.19 a barrel, having earlier pipped the 2021 top of $86.70. The 2018 peak is at $86.74, and a break would take it to heights last visited in 2014. U.S. crude also firmed 35 cents to $84.17.
By Wayne Cole