Recession Signal as Consumers Struggle to Pay Bills

People shop for bread at a supermarket in Monterey Park, Calif., on Oct. 19, 2022. Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images

I recently discussed the recession signals from the National Federation Of Independent Business (NFIB) and the inverted yield curve.

“As in 2019, we see many of the same recession signals from the NFIB survey again combined with a high percentage of yield curve inversions. Notably, out of the ten yield spreads we track, which are the most sensitive to economic outcomes, 90% are inverted.”