Quebec Election: Legault Faces Fractured Opposition in Changed Political Landscape

Quebec Premier and CAQ Leader Francois Legault (C) shakes hands with Quebec Liberal Leader Dominique Anglade, as Quebec solidaire co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois looks on, at the end of the 42nd legislature, at the legislature in Quebec City, on June 10, 2022. (The Canadian Press/Jacques Boissinot)

When Quebecers go to the polls for a provincial election a month from now, they will face a changed political landscape, with five viable parties competing for votes and the separation issue losing traction, pundits say.

The Oct. 3 election will determine whether Quebecers still support the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and its approach to Quebec nationalism post-COVID, whether the Parti Québécois (PQ) still holds relevance, how well the policies championed by the Quebec Liberals and Québec solidaire are perceived, and how the fledgling Conservative Party will fare with its fiscal conservative policies and pro-freedom stance.

Premier François Legault, leader of the CAQ, co-founded the party in 2011 to emphasize economic growth and promote Quebec nationalism instead of separation from Canada.

Brooke Jeffrey, a political science professor at Concordia University, says Legault’s approach has changed the political landscape.

“Mr. Legault has managed to eliminate the traditional federalism/separatism on which elections used to be conducted. This is the explanation for the tremendous decline in the Liberals, for example, who were seen as the standard bearers for federalism,” Jeffrey said.

“The PQ is nowhere, but Mr. Legault did this very deliberately because he saw the decline in support for separatism as voters aged. What he has done to compensate for that is be very aggressive on what he calls nationalist issues, so he’s a wolf in sheep’s clothing.”

Nationalist legislation introduced by Legault include Quebec’s secularism law, Bill 21, which passed into law in June 2019. It prohibits public servants in positions of authority from wearing “clothing, a symbol, jewelry, adornments, accessories or headwear” that is religious. Bill 96, passed in May 2022, strengthened requirements for the use of the French language in the workplace.

The legislation is opposed by many minority groups but is also popular among many Quebecers. Despite the controversy, Jeffrey says opposition parties are “very weak” and are struggling to gain traction.

“It’s much more difficult to ascertain what the issues are. It used to be so clear-cut. Now, you can’t even say the issues are left-right, because if they were, then you‘d be hearing a lot more about the number of people who died in long-term care homes, you’d be hearing a lot more about the way that the budget is being allocated, and so on. But all of the voices in opposition to [Legault] are fractured,” she said.

Polimeter, a political promise tracker maintained by Laval University, estimates that of the 251 promises made in the previous election, the CAQ has kept 56 percent, partially kept 24 percent, and broken 20 percent. The party has adopted “continuons,” or “let’s keep going,” as its slogan for this election.

Jeffrey believes being a “clever strategist” is not the only advantage the 65-year-old Legault has.

“He’s obviously got the street smarts and instinct to see. He backs off when he knows he has to,” Jeffrey said.

‘Five Serious Parties’

In the last Quebec election, held Oct. 1, 2018, Legault’s CAQ won 74 of 125 seats in the National Assembly, gaining a majority with 37 percent of the vote. The incumbent Liberals under Philippe Couillard took 31 seats, while the Parti Quebecois and Québec solidaire were tied at 10.

Quebec Conservative Leader Eric Duhaime waves to supporters at his campaign launch rally, on Aug. 28, 2022, in Quebec City.  (Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press)

The 2022 election will also include a viable Conservative Party of Quebec. Leader Eric Duhaime proposes lower income taxes, smaller government, and more natural resource development to improve the quality of life in Quebec. The party also supports pro-freedom issues and has said it would legislate to prevent civil liberties from being eroded and dismantle systems such as vaccine passports established during the pandemic.

Daniel Bernier, principal at Earnscliffe Strategies, says the upstart party makes the current campaign historic.

“It’s very interesting because it will be the first time in a long time that there’s five serious parties,” Bernier said in an interview.

“You'll have the CAQ with the Conservatives battling for the regions and battling for a more conservative approach. [This is] mainly fiscally conservative in Quebec, but also [includes] some social issues, identity stuff like French language and our roots and regionalism.”

Liberal Leader Dominique Anglade, a former CAQ president who left the party over its stances on immigration and identity issues, promises tax cuts for incomes under $92,500 and a $100 billion green hydrogen plan.

Bernier expects the Liberals to keep all or most of their stronghold in Montreal but not make gains. He believes health care and affordability are top issues in the election, and that the left-wing Québec solidaire has already seized on both.

“Québec solidaire came out with some very specific solutions, [including] to name a public health director independently, reviewed and elected by the National Assembly. They went into affordability, cutting taxes on restaurants, and even pre-prepared meals, ... toothbrush and toothpaste, and all those things,” he said.

PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon responds to a question during a news conference in Montreal on Aug. 30, 2022. (The Canadian Press/Paul Chiasson)

“They put the number on it, how much Quebecers would save. So that’s another smart way to go at it. Those are things that people can grasp and can understand. That’s candy for the electorate. It’s easy also to defend.”

PQ ‘So Lost Now’

Legault served as a Parti Quebecois member of the National Assembly from 1998 to 2009, serving as health and education minister before resigning his seat. Now, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon faces his first election leading the PQ, an entity Bernier says is losing relevance.

“On the overall chess board, the Parti Quebecois, they’re so lost now. I think that it could almost be the end of their cycle after almost 50 years,” he said.