The expectation among Western military analysts, and most certainly within the Kremlin, was that Ukrainian military forces would quickly collapse, the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy would abandon Kyiv and flee for safety, and Russia would take advantage of the resulting power vacuum to announce a new “unity government,” no doubt already prepared and in waiting, that would immediately plead for a ceasefire with Russia.
The Kremlin gambled that the Russo-Ukrainian war would be over in a few days, the United States and its NATO allies would impose toothless sanctions, and the rest of the world would quickly return to normal. This sequence of events might still happen, but it is growing increasingly unlikely.
After seizing the airport, Russian elite special forces were surrounded by Ukrainian troops and, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, were annihilated. Russian forces counterattacked the next day, on Feb. 25, with some 200 helicopters and airborne troops and now claim to control the airport. The airport is key to establishing an air bridge to allow rapid deployment of Russian military forces to reinforce the troops attacking Kyiv.
SWIFT is the messaging system used by thousands of banks and financial systems worldwide to communicate amongst themselves. The network is heavily used by Russia to finance its trade with international partners.
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine extended into the fourth day, the Kremlin had little to show for its attack. Indeed, it is increasingly clear that events are rapidly moving against Moscow.
The Ukrainian people have shown a remarkable degree of unanimity and defiance in the face of the Russian attack. Regardless of what happens to the Zelenskyy government, it is hard to imagine that a pro-Russian Ukrainian government will have any public support and, more importantly, the commitment of Ukrainian military and police forces to defend or uphold its commands.
There is little chance of a pro-Russian government taking power without Russian boots remaining on the ground to defend it. A long, drawn-out Ukrainian insurgency is not what Putin was counting on, but it is likely that is what he is going to end up with. The likelihood of a quick war leading to a change to a pro-Russian government and a return to normalcy has all but vanished.
More importantly, after tacitly accepting a growing reliance on Russian energy, the European Union has found new resolve to wean itself off its dependence on Russian natural gas and petroleum. This will necessitate policy changes not only in the EU but in the United States, which will likely result in balancing climate goals against the imperative of energy security.
European and American leaders may have been willing to soft peddle their response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but it is clear that their voters will not let them.
The situation in Ukraine is posing a significant dilemma for Russian President Vladimir Putin. He desperately needs to end the conflict in Ukraine, find a face-saving solution, and withdraw his troops. He has floated talks in Minsk with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, but his offer was turned down—unless the meeting was held in a neutral venue.
For now, Russian forces are continuing their advance, mostly because the Kremlin sees no other options but to continue along its current path. Increasingly, however, the Kremlin’s options are boiling down to either an extended occupation of Ukraine or a humiliating withdrawal. Neither prospect has much appeal to Moscow.
Putin, the consummate bluffer, has had his bluff called by the Ukrainians. Russia’s would-be Tsar is looking increasingly vulnerable and, judging from his public pronouncements, dangerously unhinged.
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