Poll Shows Liberals Lacking Enough Support to Secure a Majority Election Win

December 24, 2020 Updated: December 25, 2020

A new poll suggests that although the Liberal government may have gained a slight lead in popularity due to its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, it may not be enough for them to win a majority.

The survey, conducted by Ipsos between Dec. 11 and Dec. 14, asked 1,000 randomly-selected Canadians aged 18 and above via an online interview which political party they would most likely support if a federal election was held. 

The poll results reveal that the Liberals could receive 35 percent of the votes, Conservatives followed second at 32 percent, NDP with 18 percent, and the Green Party and Bloc Quebecois could each receive 7 percent of the votes, leaving one percent remaining.

Where the Liberals have garnered the most support is in Atlantic Canada with 53 percent, followed by 36 percent in Quebec, a six-point lead over the Bloc. The poll suggests a tight race with Conservatives in Ontario with a four-point lead at 38 percent, and only a one-point lead in British Columbia at 32 percent.

Liberals fared worst in Alberta where they only secured 21 percent of support from the respondents, compared to the Conservatives at 54 percent. Likewise in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Liberals polled at 26 percent, with Conservatives at 54 percent. 

However, overall, the poll shows 56 percent of the respondents “approve” (10 percent strongly, 46 percent somewhat) of the performance of the Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the way it responded to the pandemic.  

But according to Ipsos Public Affairs CEO Darrell Bricker, much of this support does not necessarily mean more support politically. 

“So what we’re seeing right now is the public responding to what [the] government is doing almost like it’s a public service agency, as opposed to being a political agency. So even though the government is performing well in terms of dealing with this, it really hasn’t boosted their political support that much,” Bricker told Global News.

And to Bricker, the slight edge over other political parties does not mean the Liberals could win the election decisively.

“What they’re doing is just better in the seats that they already have, rather than expanding to a new collection of seats that would put them in a position to form a majority,” said Bricker. 

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau posted a video on Tuesday pitching for new candidates to join his party to run for the next federal election.