Policy Expert Issues ‘Reality Check’ on Canada’s Emission Reduction Plan

A charging port is seen on a Mercedes Benz EQC 400 4Matic electric vehicle at the Canadian International AutoShow in Toronto on Feb. 13, 2019. (Mark Blinch/Reuters)

The government’s 2030 target for electric vehicle sales extends well beyond what manufacturers say they can produce, says Brian Livingston, executive fellow at the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary.

He wrote a memo to Minister of Environment and Climate Change Steven Guilbeault on Dec. 13 titled “Counting Carbon: A Reality Check on Our Emission Reduction Plan.”

“The ERP [Emission Reduction Plan] is merely a plan to have a plan,” Livingston said, noting that it lacks specific steps to meet targets.

The ERP aims to have electric vehicles account for 60 percent of light-duty vehicle sales in Canada by 2030. In 2035, that would rise to 100 percent.

The challenges, Livingston said, are manufacturing capacity and getting rid of fuel-burning vehicles already on the road. He put together his own projections for what he says is realistic by 2030.

“Our forecast model tracks manufacturing capacity between now and 2030. It is based on manufacturing capacity projected by car and truck builders, as opposed to theoretical exponential growth,” he said.

Emissions Likely 24% Higher Than Target

Livingston spoke of the goals in terms of metric tonnes (MT) of emissions. The government’s goal is to bring vehicle emissions down from 186 MT (2019 level) to 143 MT by 2030. That also includes emissions from freight trucks, airplanes, and other vehicles.

Overall, his model brought emissions down only to 177 MT by 2030. That’s about 24 percent more than the government’s emission targets.

He said electric vehicles have already made a significant inroad in passenger car sales, about 8 percent in the first quarter of 2022. Nonetheless, his forecast for 2030 brings passenger car emissions down to only 27 MT from the 2019 level of 33 MT. The government’s goal is 23 MT.

Livingston forecast light truck emissions to reach 56 MT by 2030. That’s actually a 2 MT increase over 2019 levels, as many consumers are switching to light trucks, he said. The government’s goal is 46 MT.

His forecast for freight trucks is 61 MT, down from 66 MT in 2019, while the government’s goal is 41 MT.

Livingston’s memo to Guilbeault is the first of seven he will release, each tailored to a different sector where emission reductions are required to meet ERP goals.

Guilbeault’s office did not respond to an Epoch Times request for coment by publication time.

Costs

The cost of electric vehicles is a potential obstacle to emissions goals not specifically mentioned in Livingston’s report.

The Environment Department published a document on Dec. 2 titled “Total Cost of Ownership for Light Duty Vehicles in Canada.” It said it was “seeking information on the current and projected total cost of light duty vehicle (LDV) ownership in Canada.”

A 2021 House environment committee report said “the relatively higher purchase price of ZEVs [zero emission vehicles], relative to conventional vehicles, makes it harder for some Canadians to afford them.”

The report, titled “The Road Ahead: Encouraging The Production And Purchase Of Zero Emission Vehicles In Canada,” [pdf] cited a Toyota Canada Inc. brief that put the average 2019 cost of a conventional sedan at $28,000, compared to $56,000 for a ZEV sedan before the $5,000 federal rebate.

Some testimony the committee considered in making the report said cost will likely come down as battery technology advances, but estimates as to when that would happen varied.

Andrew Chen contributed to this report.