Commentary
During the Cold War, the United States counted on a few key European allies to shore up the NATO alliance. West Germany was the Atlantic Alliance’s front line, hosting hundreds of thousands of troops from several NATO nations. Britain was America’s unsinkable aircraft carrier for medium-range bombers. Italy and Spain provided critical infrastructure for the U.S. Navy.
And France? Well, it was there, too.
Since the end of the Cold War, NATO’s frontier has moved hundreds of miles to the east after several former communist nations (and one-time members of the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact) joined the western alliance. Given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Moscow’s new hostility toward the West—to the point of darkly warning that it might want to “push back the borders that threaten” Russia—the strategic importance of the “Bucharest Nine” has gained a new appreciation.
Of all these countries, Poland has emerged as NATO’s critical defensive rampart in the east, both because of its size and because it has worked so hard to bulk up militarily.
Poland is the fifth largest state in the European Union (EU) in terms of population and the seventh largest in size. It also has the sixth-largest GDP in the EU.
Poland engaged in massive economic restructuring immediately after the fall of communism, a painful reform effort called the “big bang.” Its short-term impacts were job cuts, inflation, and a drastic devaluation of the zloty, Poland’s currency. However, the country quickly recovered and became a thriving market economy.
By nearly any measure, Poland is a “big state” in Europe and is striving for the clout that goes along with it. In particular, it is trying hard to become America’s go-to military partner in eastern NATO.
In the first place, Warsaw is providing invaluable assistance to Ukraine. It is Kyiv’s third largest aid supplier, amounting to nearly 0.9 percent of Poland’s GDP. It has absorbed thousands of refugees from Ukraine and nearly exhausted its arsenal to help re-arm Ukraine’s military.
More importantly, perhaps, Poland is committed to making its military one of the strongest in NATO. Even before the Russo-Ukraine war, Warsaw regularly spent at least two percent of its GDP on defense, one of the few NATO countries to do so. In 2021, this was equal to $13.7 billion.
The Polish military is one of the largest in NATO, comprising around 164,000 troops and an additional 30,000 soldiers in a recently established territorial defense force. Poland is also home to 11,000 U.S. troops.
Poland already outperforms Germany in defense spending as a percentage of GDP and per capita spending on defense. It also operates more tanks and howitzers than Germany.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has galvanized Poland’s military buildup. Warsaw increased defense spending in 2023 to $22 billion. In addition, the government plans to add $7 billion to a special support fund for the military. This will raise overall defense spending to at least 3 percent of GDP.
Warsaw plans to increase the size of its military to 300,000 troops by 2035 and increase defense spending to 5 percent of GDP.
This explosion in defense spending is also funding a massive recapitalization of the Polish armed forces.
Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Warsaw had signed a $4.75 billion agreement to buy 250 M1A2 Abrams tanks. This has since been followed up by a $1.4 billion deal to acquire 116 older M1A1s. Poland also wants to buy the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), a deal that could be worth up to $10 billion.
Poland has also turned increasingly to South Korea for arms. Last year, Warsaw signed multiple contracts with Seoul to sell 180 K2 tanks, 212 K9 howitzers, 300 K239 Chunmoo multiple-rocket launchers, and 48 FA-50 ground-attack jets. Altogether, these sales are worth at least $9 billion.
Other planned imports include 96 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters and 32 F-35s, making Poland the first former Soviet bloc country to buy this fifth-generation fighter.
Poland also uses the increased defense spending to revitalize its domestic arms industry. It plans to license-produce over 800 Korean K2 tanks and a new series of armored fighting vehicles in cooperation with Finland. Poland also manufactures its own helicopters and antitank-guided weapons.
Warsaw says “We strive for the Polish land forces to be the strongest in Europe.”
The big question is how Warsaw will afford all this extra defense spending, particularly the import of billions of dollars worth of arms.
The United States is providing some funding to reimburse Poland for giving stocks from its military inventories to Ukraine. However, this is only about $289 million, far short of the billions Warsaw needs for its defense buildup.
Moreover, Poland’s right-wing government (which has been accused of democratic backsliding, such as weakening the independence of the judiciary and restricting press freedoms) has led the EU to hold up $37 billion in grants and loans linked to a COVID recovery fund.
Infighting within Poland’s fractious political system has also made it harder for Warsaw to reach a consensus on many aspects of national policy, resulting in Poland continuing to “box under its weight” both within NATO and the EU.
At the same time, Poland is primarily united around the aim of strengthening its armed forces. By making itself instrumental to NATO, particularly the United States, it is cementing its role as the Alliance’s bulwark in the east.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
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