When Is China’s Next Military Exercise Near Taiwan?

Soldiers of the People's Liberation Army are seen before a giant screen as Chinese leader Xi Jinping speaks at the military parade marking the 70th founding anniversary of the regime in Beijing on Oct. 1, 2019. Jason Lee/Reuters

Commentary

Many pundits around the world commented on the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) exercise conducted in August 2022 following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) visit to Taiwan. Most commentators observed that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was waiting for an excuse to have the PLA Air Force, rocket forces, cyber forces, and Navy flex its muscle near Taiwan.

Why and When Will the CCP Order the PLA to Conduct Another Exercise?

Many U.S. government officials have postulated that the PLA will invade within several windows of opportunity, such as the recent comment by the Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Mike Gilday who said on Oct. 19, 2022: “When we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind that has to be a 2022 window or a potentially a 2023 window. I can’t rule that out. I don’t mean at all to be alarmist by saying that, it’s just that we can’t wish that away.”