With Ivanka Trump set to take the witness stand on Wednesday in the New York attorney general’s civil fraud trial targeting the Trump family over property valuations, both supporters and enemies of the former president and current candidate see this as a particularly vulnerable moment for Donald Trump and his candidacy. The trial is the object of fervent interest around the world, as Trump lawyer Christopher Kise repeatedly said last week in urging the judge to treat his side more fairly.
Ms. Trump has unsuccessfully sought to avoid having to testify. Now, as the result of a rescheduling, she is set to take the stand just hours before the GOP primary debate takes place in Miami on Wednesday night.
An appeals court in June exempted her from having to testify about her roughly 10 years of work for the Trump Organization on the grounds that the statute of limitations had run out. But in October, Judge Arthur Engoron—who has been openly contemptuous of Donald Trump—ruled that the former president’s daughter is still subject to New York prosecutors’ subpoena power even though the she lives in Florida.
It is all but inevitable that observers and analysts will view the competition for the 2024 Republican nomination at least partly in the light of Ms. Trump’s performance on the stand in the Lower Manhattan courthouse, along with her father’s fiery testimony on Monday.
Short-Term Effect in Doubt
Yet for all the seriousness of the charges against President Trump, and the voluminous financial documents and records presented in court, developments in the civil fraud trial are unlikely to make much difference in the former president’s 2024 prospects, at least in the short term, political analysts have told The Epoch Times.
The civil fraud trial has already received extensive coverage in the national media. Moreover, Mr. Trump’s claims, both inside and out of the courtroom, that the trial is a politically motivated machination on the part of powerful Democrat Party figures, resonates with large numbers of GOP voters, even including some not normally identified with Mr. Trump’s base.
“I don’t think the case is likely to have much impact in the short term. There has been significant coverage of the legal cases against the former president, and the cases are already part of the calculation many voters are making,” Kevin Wagner, a professor at Florida Atlantic University, told The Epoch Times.
“Republicans are more likely to believe the cases are politically motivated, so in the primaries especially, there is little evidence that the cases hurt the former president,” he added.
Moreover, it would be a mistake to assume that Ivanka Trump will not perform well or will fail to evoke sympathy while undergoing cross-examination from government lawyers, whose conduct so far in this trial has brought numerous objections from Mr. Kise on grounds of both relevance and the statute of limitations.
Mr. Trump himself singled out the prosecutors’ reliance on statements of financial condition to build their case as a legal fallacy. The statements, the former president argued, prominently feature disclaimer clauses advising the lenders that review them to perform all due diligence on applicants and to come to their own conclusions.
Deutsche Bank, the global financial institution that Attorney General Letitia James believes received fraudulent representations of the state of Trump Organization finances as part of the loan application process, has not alleged any breach of contract, both Mr. Trump and Mr. Kise have maintained. In Mr. Kise’s view, it is highly improper for the attorney general to place her subjective judgment over that of a bank with deep experience and highly sophisticated metrics for the assessment of valuations, credit risk, and loan eligibility.
“At first glance, it might seem like the odds are stacked against the Trump family in the eyes of the justice system. However, it’s crucial acknowledge the unpredictable nature of legal proceedings,” David Carlucci, a former New York state senator who now works as a political consultant, told The Epoch Times.
Long-Term Uncertainty
The civil fraud case and its potential outcome are not as simple as either side might like. While discounting the likelihood of significant fallout in the immediate aftermath of the testimony from Mr. Trump and his sons and daughter, observers concede that the long-term trajectory for Trump and his 2024 aspirations is impossible to predict.The stakes in the lawsuit are high—$250 million. If successful, Attorney General James’s lawsuit will shear off a significant chunk of the Trump Organization and family assets and leave at least some voters with the impression of a self-identified real estate guru who failed at his own game.
“The real unknown is how this may change voters in a general election. It’s just too early to know, though historically, allegations of this magnitude have hurt the viability of candidates, especially with voters from the opposing party and independents,” said Mr. Wagner.
“Serious allegations lead out to drop out. Even things less serious than a conviction have caused candidates to lose support and eventually drop out. From Gary Hart to George Allen,” he added.
Gary Hart was the sometime front-runner in the race for the Democrat Party nomination for president in 1988, who dropped out of the race after allegations of adulterous relations came to light. George Allen was a Virginia senator whose 2006 reelection campaign fell apart after his use of a racial slur against an opponent drew notoriety.
What makes the outcome of serious charges so unpredictable is that, as noted above, they do not necessarily erode the support of people who believe in a candidate’s message and agenda and may even embolden voters who feel their candidate is the target of a politically orchestrated witch hunt—the very thing that Mr. Trump denounced in his Monday cross-examination.
Mr. Wagner offered the example of socialist Eugene Debs, who ran for president from prison in 1920. Despite his circumstances, Mr. Debs won nearly a million votes, though he failed to win any Electoral College votes, Mr. Wagner pointed out. In the end, Republican Warren Harding handily defeated his Democrat opponent, James Cox, along with Mr. Debs.
While Mr. Trump has many determined enemies, respect for the integrity of courtroom proceedings may yet supersede any partisan motives.
“As responsible observers of the judicial process, we must exercise prudence and patience, resisting the temptation to preemptively draw conclusions until the case unfolds within the confines of the courtroom,” said Mr. Carlucci.
“After all, in the world of law, anything can happen, and we must remain grounded in our expectations,” he added.
The Epoch Times reached out to Attorney General James’s office for comment, but did not receive a reply as of press time.
