Viewpoints
Opinion

The Fog of War Makes Real-Time Battle Damage Assessments Unreliable

A variety of factors make it extremely difficult to conduct real or near-real-time battle damage assessments.
The Fog of War Makes Real-Time Battle Damage Assessments Unreliable
Smoke rises following a strike, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, on April 1, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/West Asia News Agency via Reuters/File Photo
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Commentary

With a ceasefire in place that will hopefully lead to a peace agreement, delving into how facts can be interpreted quite differently depending on your perspective is a worthwhile exercise. In particular, we will evaluate two different explanations for the 90 percent reduction in drone and missile attacks that has been touted at numerous official pressers by the U.S. War Department.

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Mike Fredenburg
Mike Fredenburg
Author
Mike Fredenburg writes on military technology and defense matters with an emphasis on defense reform. He holds a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering and master’s degree in production operations management.