Commentary
Iran is proving hard to defeat. After nearly all of the most obvious targets have been destroyed, including the country’s top leadership, navy, air force, and ballistic missile launchers, the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has dispersed and gone underground.
Iranian military personnel, of which the IRGC-designated terrorists are the most important element, briefly emerge to harass shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and launch weapons at Israel and Arab oil facilities. They hide as quickly as they emerge. This pop-up strategy is sufficient to freeze the strait’s shipping and push average gas prices in the United States north of $4 per gallon.
Iran’s top mediators claimed on April 7 that Iran still has 45,000 drones and 15,000 ballistic missiles with which to continue the approach indefinitely. While likely an exaggeration, Iran still has plenty of munitions to hold the world’s oil hostage.
Iran appears more and more like a failed state in which terrorists are running wild. As U.S. President Donald Trump has observed, it is hard to negotiate with a country that has no leaders remaining. This does not mean that a war against Iran’s people or civilization is necessary. The latter approach could mobilize world public opinion against the United States.
There are better options available. Iran can be broken into pieces to weaken the regime. The Kurds could get their own state. Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon is already shrinking under Israel’s need for a buffer against Iranian rockets, supplied by Iran. The Houthis, which have joined the fight in joint operations with Iran and Hezbollah, could be targeted. Iranian oil exports can be taxed to the point of little profit through the tolls that Trump proposed on April 6.
Control over Iran’s oil, perhaps through the U.S. seizure of Kharg Island, will provide the United States with bargaining leverage over China, which has kept Iran financially afloat through sanctions evasion and oil purchases. China uses small refineries known as teapots, small banks, and front companies in Hong Kong and elsewhere to import 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports and convert Iran’s yuan, which it receives in initial payment, to any currency it likes.
China and Russia are responsible for the war due to their support and encouragement of the Iranian regime over the years. This continues today. They vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution on April 7 to open the Strait of Hormuz. The resolution called on Iran to stop attacking shipping and threatening its neighbors. The resolution was sponsored by Bahrain, which argued that the closure risks destabilizing the global economy and worsening food insecurity. Not only oil, but fertilizer traverses the strait.
