Commentary
The Houthis in Yemen largely abstained from the latest round of fighting between their ally Iran on one side, and the United States and Israel on the other. That could change any day, with major consequences for global energy markets.
After the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, the Houthis launched ballistic missiles and drone attacks on U.S., British, and Israeli ships in the Red Sea. This severely limited shipping through the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. These waterways lead from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean and the Arabian Sea on the other side. Those seas, in turn, lead to the Atlantic and Indian oceans. The only alternative to the Red Sea for European–Asian maritime trade is around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa.
The Houthis are close allies of Iran, which supports them with financing and weapons. The text on the Houthi flag states, “Allah is great, death to the USA, death to Israel, curse the Jews, victory to Islam.” In response to the Houthi attacks in 2023, the United States and Israel pummeled them with munitions until they relented. The Houthi military, leadership, and infrastructure were severely degraded as a result.
When the war with Iran reemerged in late February, a large Houthi faction did not want to repeat the experience of 2023. However, another faction advocated for joining the Tehran-led war to benefit from the supposed spoils afterward.
Leading up to and during the U.S. ceasefire that went into effect on April 7, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah, and the Houthis continued their attacks and threats against U.S. allies and international shipping in the region. They are all U.S.-designated terrorist groups, and have recently conducted “joint operations” that prove their close coordination.
As recently as April 9, an Iranian official confirmed that the country was charging some ships a “toll” of $2 million each to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Five ships have reportedly paid this toll, which really amounts to extortion. The only ships to have transited the strait since the ceasefire are all Iranian-linked or approved. Iran also attacked Arab oil infrastructure during the ceasefire. One Iranian attack targeted Saudi Arabia’s key East-West Pipeline, which can move oil from the blocked Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.
Iran’s recent and continuing threats persist in cutting 13 million barrels per day of production from Arab countries. This has caused gas prices in the United States to spike to more than $4 per gallon. Iran’s threats against shipping are nothing less than a foot in the door to future extortion demands that have already impacted not only the Persian Gulf but also the Red Sea shipping. Already, significant upward pressure on gas prices will increase further if the Houthis again join the attacks.
The threat is clear: Arab oil and gas exports could be stopped entirely to punish the United States with high gas prices, and get “taxed” by Iran to increase the power of the IRGC, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization. Iran can coordinate further “joint operations” against global shipping through not only attacks in the Persian Gulf, but also in the Red Sea. The Houthis are the easiest way for Iran to enlarge the war from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.
The United States has so far refrained from retaliatory attacks on Iran for ignoring the ceasefire and continuing attacks on America’s allies and restrictions on international shipping. That can only last so long if the IRGC and Houthis continue their attacks. The United States and our allies can never let terrorism win, which would only embolden the terrorists and their friends in places like Beijing and Moscow.
That may eventually require the United States to do what we do not want to do—expand the war to Yemen, where the Houthis reside, and hit Iranian industrial, energy, and infrastructure targets that enable the IRGC to continue its terrorism with a newfound lack of accountability. This will have disastrous consequences for regular Iranian and Yemeni civilians, who just want peace and prosperity. They are our biggest hope for bringing about regime change in these countries. So the United States and Israel should do their best to ensure the safety of civilians even as the terrorists continue to be rooted out.
