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Short-Term Oil Spike, Followed by Disinflation: What Markets Are Telling You

Short-Term Oil Spike, Followed by Disinflation: What Markets Are Telling You
Oil tankers sit anchored off the coast of Seal Beach in Seal Beach, Calif., on March 17, 2026. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Daniel Lacalle
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Commentary

The current oil and commodity price shock has created an interesting pattern: The futures curve has moved further into backwardation, and market participants are shrugging off the headlines, discounting a short-term inflationary burst that would be rapidly corrected.

Daniel Lacalle
Daniel Lacalle
Author
Daniel Lacalle, Ph.D., is chief economist at hedge fund Tressis and author of the bestselling books “Freedom or Equality” (2020), “Escape from the Central Bank Trap” (2017), “The Energy World Is Flat”​ (2015), and “Life in the Financial Markets.”