Recession and Inflation: More Likely for Both to Be Present Than Both Absent

Recession and Inflation: More Likely for Both to Be Present Than Both Absent
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Law Ka-chung
Updated:
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Commentary

While the Federal Reserve and Janet Yellen thought they had overcome high inflation, inflation began to bottom out but now has signs to reflate. This is exactly the story of stagflation in the 1970s, where, at that time, the Federal Reserve also thought it had overcome inflation but, in fact, had not. Inflation is like a chronic disease such as diabetes, which is not imminently fatal but leads to other problems as time goes on. Because high inflation is never as urgent as recession, central banks tend not to place a high priority on this as long as the risk of having the latter is obvious.

Law Ka-chung
Law Ka-chung
Author
Law Ka-chung is a commentator on global macroeconomics and markets. He has been writing numerous newspaper and magazine columns and talking about markets on various TV, radio, and online channels in Hong Kong since 2005. He covers all types of economics and finance topics in the United States, Europe, and Asia, ranging from macroeconomic theories to market outlook for equities, currencies, rates, yields, and commodities. He has been the chief economist and strategist at a Hong Kong branch of the fifth-largest Chinese bank for more than 12 years. He has a Ph.D. in Economics, MSc in Mathematics, and MSc in Astrophysics.
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